Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Termalica Nieciecza		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.7	1.95	Watch
	3.25	3.7	1.98
	3.49	3.9	2
	3.52	4.12	1.9	Watch
	3.3	3.7	1.95
	3.33	3.74	1.98	Watch
	3.33	3.8	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (3.03)	3.81 ↑ (3.17)	1.97 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Termalica Nieciecza
27.8%

Draw
24.6%

Jagiellonia Białystok
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

28.2%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.9%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	4.8%	76.2%

Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Jagiellonia (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Jagiellonia (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chovan A. (G) 29. Isik G. 2. Kopacz B. (C) 3. Kasperkiewicz A. 21. Hilbrycht D. 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 13. Kubica K. 6. Wolski M. 86. Strzalek I. 9. Jimenez J. 25. Zapolnik K.	50. Abramowicz S. (C) 15. Wojtuszek N. 3. Stojinovic D. 13. Vital B. 27. Wdowik B. 31. Flach L. 11. Imaz J. 8. Drachal D. 7. Pozo A. 86. Mazurek B. 10. Pululu A.
Substitutes
17. Biniek D. 27. Boboc R. 35. Deisadze D. 23. Guerrero S. 26. Jakubik W. 8. Kurzawa R. 5. Masoero L. 99. Mleczko M. (G) 77. Putivtsev A.	19. Cantero A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 90. Kuczynski M. 21. Lozano S. 70. Pelmard A. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 80. Pietuszewski O. 5. Polak C. 9. Rallis D. 6. Romanczuk T. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Brosz M.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Drachal D. (Own goal),
30', Flach L. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Vital B. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
44', Kopacz B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Strzalek I. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
46', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
60', Flach L. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
65', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
67', Mazurek B. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
67', Drachal D. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
73', Jimenez J. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Zapolnik K. ⚽, Boboc R. (A),
79', Wdowik B. 🟨,
83', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2.

Termalica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jagiellonia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jagiellonia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Termalica: Trubeha A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Cantero A. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 42.34%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	5:1 ✺
21.11.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LWWLT
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Cup
04.12.25	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	5:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:4
04.02.22	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1
07.08.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0
17.11.17	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	0:0
16.07.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1
28.05.17	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2
02.04.17	Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza	1:0

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