Match Info

SCOTLAND: CHALLENGE CUP - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 18 November 2023, Saturday


	The New Saints		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.33	5
	1.52	4.5	5	Watch
	1.52	4.49	5.16
	1.53	4.49	5.16
	1.29	5.5	6
	1.5	4.55	5.2
	1.46	4.6	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.37)	4.64 ↓ (5.5)	5.25 ↓ (6.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The New Saints
62.4%

Draw
20%

Arbroath
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

17%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

16.4%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The New Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that The New Saints's form might have worsened.

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The New Saints than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for The New Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

The New Saints - Arbroath Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Roberts C. (G) 7. Daniels J. 5. Astles R. 12. Hudson B. 10. Redmond D. (C) 19. Clark B. 21. Smith L. 18. Holden R. 17. Williams J. 23. Young B. 8. Brobbel R.	1. Gaston D. (G) 14. Stowe M. 2. Steele A. 3. Hamilton C. (C) 12. Stewart S. 62. Dunnwald-Turan K. 7. Gold D. 8. McKenna M. 11. Dow R. 26. Lyon D. 27. Bird J.
Substitutes
24. Baker A. 11. Cieslewicz A. 29. Dafydd G. 22. Davies D. 3. Marriott Ch. 2. Pask J. 6. Routledge J. 1. Thompson R. (G) 14. Williams D.	21. Adams A. (G) 10. Jacobs Ke. 16. Norey J. 6. Slater C.

Preview

TNS in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arbroath is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

TNS could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match TNS is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The New Saints
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.11.23	Newtown - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
31.10.23	The New Saints - Colwyn Bay	6:1 ✺
28.10.23	The New Saints - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
24.10.23	The New Saints - Gresford Athletic	9:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.10.23	Barry Town United - The New Saints	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWW
- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
11.11.23	Airdrieonians - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Arbroath - Partick Thistle	1:3 ✺
27.10.23	Dundee United - Arbroath	6:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
14.10.23	Queen of the South - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
30.09.23	Arbroath - Inverness	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWL

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