Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Hyytia J. (Fin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Tobol Kostanay		St. Gallen

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.9
	3.3	3.75	2	Watch
	3.64	3.6	1.99
	3.76	3.59	1.92	Watch
	3.59	3.65	1.95	Watch
	3.3	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (2.9)	3.61 ↑ (3.32)	1.94 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
26.6%

Draw
25.7%

St. Gallen
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.7%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

27%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tobol Kostanay's form might have worsened.

St. Gallen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Gallen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Gallen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	16.7%	61.1%

Tobol Kostanay - St. Gallen Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Tobol will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). St. Gallen will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Gallen: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pokatilov S. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 55. Miladinovic I. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. (C) 11. Chesnokov I. 10. Ivanovic I. 6. Essien E. 13. Mosiashvili T. 20. Costa R. 8. El Messaoudi A.	1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 22. Faber K. 4. Stanic J. 5. Ambrosius S. 36. Okoroji C. 16. Gortler L. (C) 8. Quintilla J. 30. Ruiz V. 64. Stevanovic M. 9. Geubbels W. 18. Mambimbi F.
Substitutes
25. Bozhko R. 12. Busurmanov S. (G) 51. Galym B. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 9. Pedro Eugenio 16. Tapalov E. 21. Tsonev R. 7. Zhumashev Z. 17. Zuev A.	10. Akolo C. 11. Cisse M. 15. Diaby A. 14. Epting N. 63. Konietzke C. 90. Milosevic J. 19. Moller N. 33. Schmidt I. 24. Toma B. 20. Vallci A. 25. Watkowiak L. (G) 7. Witzig C.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Maassen E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Essien E. 🟨,
58', Ivanovic I. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
59', Gortler L. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
59', Ruiz V. ↓, Witzig C. ↑,
59', Geubbels W. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
68', Essien E. 🟨,
70', El Messaoudi A. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Cisse M. ⚽, Stevanovic M. (A),
73', Okoroji C. ↓, Noah Yannick ↑,
74', Chesnokov I. ↓, Galym B. ↑,
79', Costa R. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
79', Quintilla J. ↓, Konietzke C. ↑,
79', Mosiashvili T. ↓, Tsonev R. ↑,
82', Stanic J. 🟨,
90', Galym B. 🟥,
90', Miladinovic I. 🟨,
90', Noah Yannick 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-4.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

St. Gallen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

St. Gallen will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tobol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	St. Gallen - Tobol Kostanay	4:1 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
21.07.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Ružomberok	1:0 ✺
11.07.24	Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay	5:2 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWLW
- FC St. Gallen
Swiss Super League
28.07.24	St. Gallen - Young Boys	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	St. Gallen - Tobol Kostanay	4:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
20.07.24	Winterthur - St. Gallen	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Vaduz - St. Gallen	0:1 ✺
06.07.24	Rapperswil-Jona - St. Gallen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	St. Gallen - Tobol Kostanay	4:1

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