Match Info

Date: 18 May 2022, Wednesday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)


	Tokushima Vortis		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	1.95
	3.9	2.95	1.9
	3.6	3.2	1.91
	4.1	3.1	1.95
	4.41	3.2	2.02
	4.2	2.9	1.91
	4.15	3.15	2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.23)	3.1 ↑ (2.9)	1.95 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
22.9%

Draw
29.7%

Nagoya Grampus
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

31.2%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

30.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tokushima Vortis's form might have worsened.

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nagoya Grampus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokushima Vortis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Tokushima Vortis - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Nagoya will win (votes: 18 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 57.7% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Nagoya could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nagoya will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Tokushima won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
15.05.22	Yokohama FC - Tokushima Vortis	2:1 ✺
08.05.22	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
04.05.22	Tokushima Vortis - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
01.05.22	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:2 ✺
27.04.22	Tokushima Vortis - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTWWL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
14.05.22	Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
07.05.22	Yokohama F. Marinos - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
03.05.22	Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
28.04.22	Júbilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
23.04.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
26.03.22	Nagoya Grampus - Tokushima Vortis	2:0
Japan J1 League
10.09.21	Nagoya Grampus - Tokushima Vortis	3:0
22.05.21	Tokushima Vortis - Nagoya Grampus	0:0
Japan J2 League
08.07.17	Nagoya Grampus - Tokushima Vortis	0:2
15.04.17	Tokushima Vortis - Nagoya Grampus	2:2
Japan J1 League
26.10.14	Tokushima Vortis - Nagoya Grampus	0:2
19.07.14	Nagoya Grampus - Tokushima Vortis	1:1

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