Match Info

J1 League - Round 35

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	4.1	Watch
	1.9	3.35	3.9	Watch
	2.16	3.4	3.69
	2.09	3.33	3.59	Watch
	1.97	3.44	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.09)	3.4 ↑ (3.33)	3.86 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
47.6%

Draw
27.9%

Fagiano Okayama
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.4%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.9%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Tokyo - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: Tokyo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Kim Seung-Gyu (G) 5. Nagatomo Y. 24. Scholz A. 3. Morishige M. 2. Muroya S. 22. Endo K. 8. Ko T. 37. Koizumi K. 40. Marcos Guilherme 16. Sato K. 39. Nakagawa T.	77. Kawanami G. (G) 2. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 43. Suzuki Y. 26. Motoyama H. 41. Miyamoto E. 14. Tabei R. 50. Kato H. 19. Iwabuchi H. 8. Esaka A. 22. Ichimi K.
Substitutes
7. Anzai S. 32. Doi K. 13. Hatano G. (G) 28. Nozawa L. 30. Oka T. 99. Shirai K. 33. Tawaratsumida K. 88. Yamaguchi T. 14. Yamashita K.	33. Kamiya Yuta 21. Kawakami K. (G) 27. Kimura T. 15. Kudo K. 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 7. Takeuchi R. 98. Werik Popo 88. Yanagi T.
Coaches
Matsuhashi R.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Tatsuta Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Sato K. ⚽, Ko T. (A),
59', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
59', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
68', Endo K. ↓, Anzai S. ↑,
68', Nakagawa T. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
71', Kato H. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
71', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Esaka A. ⚽, Kamiya Yuta (A),
77', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
82', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
88', 2 - 1, Tawaratsumida K. ⚽, Sato K. (A),
89', Esaka A. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Sato K. ⚽, Ko T. (A),
90+2', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Oka T. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 15).

Recent performances by Tokyo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tokyo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tokyo might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Higashi K. (Yellow Cards) Nagakura M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Okayama: Brodersen S. (Red Card)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tokyo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
17.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tokyo	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
23.09.25	Tokyo - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TTLWW
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
18.10.25	Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.04.25	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo	1:0

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