Match Info

J1 League - Round 18

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Fagiano Okayama		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.25	2.57	Watch
	2.68	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.75	3.31	2.68
	2.77	3.22	2.62	Watch
	2.7	3	2.5
	2.72	3.24	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.8)	3.2 ↓ (3.22)	2.57 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
34.5%

Draw
29.2%

Cerezo Osaka
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

29.3%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

30.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
52. Hamada T. (G) 6. Omori H. 48. Tatsuta Y. 43. Suzuki Y. 51. Shirai K. 41. Miyamoto E. 5. Ogura K. 88. Yamane T. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 98. Werik Popo	23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 66. Ohata A. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 48. Shibayama M. 13. Nakajima M. 14. Yokoyama Y. 11. Thiago Andrade
Substitutes
45. Browne N. 9. Leo Gaucho 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 1. Moser L. (G) 26. Motoyama H. 66. Nishikawa J. 17. Sueyoshi R. 7. Takeuchi R.	19. Homma S. 8. Kagawa S. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 26. Kubo E. 6. Noborizato K. 9. Sakuragawa S. 3. Tanaka H. 7. Uejo S. 35. Yoshino K.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Papas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Yokoyama Y. ⚽, Cools D. (A),
37', Ohata A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', Kimura T. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Yokoyama Y. ⚽, Nakajima M. (A),
61', Ogura K. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
61', Yamane T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
61', Werik Popo ↓, Lucao ↑,
62', Thiago Andrade 🟨,
64', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
64', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Homma S. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Leo Gaucho ⚽, Lucao (A),
77', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
80', Shibayama M. ↓, Uejo S. ↑,
80', Nakajima M. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Uejo S. ⚽, Sakuragawa S. (A),
83', Suzuki Y. ↓, Takeuchi R. ↑,
85', Omori H. 🟨,
90', 2 - 3, Leo Gaucho ⚽,
90+3', Ohata A. ↓, Tanaka H. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Okayama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Okayama: Kudo K. (Hamstring Injury) Tabei R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Sakata R. (Hamstring Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Yengi K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Okuda H. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Cerezo Osaka: 1.92% Okayama: 1.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.91%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
17.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Vissel Kobe - Fagiano Okayama	0:3 ✺
06.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.2 WWLWW
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
17.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	6:1 ✺
09.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
06.05.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
03.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2
18.10.25	Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka	1:2
02.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1
Japan J2 League
04.12.16	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
16.10.16	Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
28.05.16	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1
22.07.15	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1

Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide