Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 11

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Tondela		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.78	3.05	2.62	Watch
	2.85	3.2	2.71
	2.83	3.38	2.45	Watch
	2.84	3.28	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.93)	3.22 ↓ (3.4)	2.6 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
34%

Draw
29.5%

Vitoria Guimarães
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

28.5%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.4%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 15. Sithole S. 8. Tavares H. (C) 79. Felix H. 32. Rodriguez J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 17. Cavaleiro I.	25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 26. Abascal R. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 13. Mendes J. II. 6. Mitrovic M. 16. Beni 18. Arcanjo T. 20. Samu (C) 19. Camara O. 7. Oliveira N.
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 97. Cicero 10. Hodge J. 48. Manso T. 11. Rodriguez Y. 16. Rony Lopes 29. Siebatcheu J. 67. Yarlen	91. Gui (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 3. Nobrega M. 30. Nogueira G. 88. Nogueira M. 87. Paula G. 48. Saviolo N. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T.
Coaches
Vieira I.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Camara O. 🟨,
61', Tavares H. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
62', Medina B. 🟨,
68', Mitrovic M. ↓, Nogueira M. ↑,
80', Bebeto ↓, Manso T. ↑,
80', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
80', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
80', Samu ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
80', Arcanjo T. ↓, Saviolo N. ↑,
85', Sithole S. ↓, Cicero ↑,
85', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
88', Saviolo N. 🟨,
90+1', Manso T. 🟨,
90+2', Bernardo 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 1, Camara O. (Pen),
90+5', Camara O. ↓, Nobrega M. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tondela has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Guimarães: Blanco F. (Red Card) Gustavo (Injury) Ndoye A. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 38.44%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Vila Real - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Club Friendly
08.10.25	Ferrol - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLWT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	União Lamas - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
09.09.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	0:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	1:1
Liga Portugal
24.04.22	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
11.12.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	5:2
04.04.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	1:2
27.11.20	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2
01.03.20	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	2:0

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