Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 5, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Auxerre		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.2	Watch
	2.65	3.4	2.6
	3.35	3.25	2.22
	3.54	3.3	2.27
	3.47	2.75	2.43	Watch
	3.47	3.37	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.68)	3.23 ↓ (3.37)	2.33 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auxerre
29%

Draw
29.8%

Toulouse
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

28.3%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

28.9%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Auxerre's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auxerre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toulouse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	29.2%	50%

Auxerre - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Toulouse will win (votes: 11 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29.1% – 70.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Auxerre (2.35) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 3 - 60%). Toulouse (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Leon D. (G) 29. Senaya M. 13. Siwe T. 4. Sierralta F. 14. Mensah G. 22. Oppegard F. 10. Sinayoko L. 42. Owusu E. (C) 5. Danois K. 19. Danny Namaso 9. Mara S.	1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 23. Casseres C. 17. Francis A. 24. Methalie D. 31. Edjouma N. 9. Magri F. 10. Gboho Y.
Substitutes
92. Akpa C. 21. Coulibaly L. 40. De Percin T. (G) 18. Diousse A. 34. Matondo R. 23. Osman I. 38. Petit Dol A. 31. Rodin R. 27. Sy L.	20. Emersonn 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 34. Lahmadi N. 77. Sauer M. 19. Sidibe D. 7. Vignolo J.
Coaches
Pelissier C.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Magri F. (Pen),
35', Mensah G. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Danny Namaso ⚽, Sinayoko L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Methalie D. 🟨,
56', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
56', Edjouma N. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
63', Restes G. 🟨,
64', Oppegard F. 🟥,
65', Mara S. ↓, Akpa C. ↑,
70', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Sidibe D. ↑,
70', Francis A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
82', McKenzie M. 🟨,
82', Gboho Y. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
83', Sidibe D. 🟨,
85', Sinayoko L. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,
90+4', Casseres C. 🟨,
90+4', Hidalgo S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 0.

Recent form of Auxerre has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toulouse's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Casimir J. (Red Card) Diomande S. (Thigh Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Neck Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury) Vossah A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Auxerre: Akpa C. (Groin Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:28. (average 1:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJ Auxerre
French Ligue 1
13.09.25	Auxerre - Monaco	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Nantes - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Nice - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
17.08.25	Auxerre - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Auxerre - Levante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Toulouse - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.02.25	Auxerre - Toulouse	2:2
01.12.24	Toulouse - Auxerre	2:0
27.05.23	Toulouse - Auxerre	1:1
11.01.23	Auxerre - Toulouse	0:5
French Ligue 2
19.03.22	Auxerre - Toulouse	1:2
16.10.21	Toulouse - Auxerre	6:0
02.02.21	Auxerre - Toulouse	3:1

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