Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: De Grolsch Veste (Enschede)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Select 1, SuperSport LaLiga
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 3
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	SportsMax 2 Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 5
Portugal	DAZN 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 22, Blue Sport 22
Turkey	TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 8
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
World	Disney+, SportsMax App, VIX App


	Twente		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.25
	2.9	3.5	2.35
	3	3.6	2.35
	3.16	3.5	2.34
	3.08	3.43	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.25
	3.15	3.73	2.33
	3	3.6	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.6)	3.55 ↑ (3.2)	2.32 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Twente
31.5%

Draw
27.1%

Fenerbahçe
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

29.1%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Twente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Twente than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	20%	46.7%

Twente - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Twente will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 14 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 28.8% – 64.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 2. Hilgers M. 38. Bruns M. 34. Salah-Eddine A. 8. Regeer Y. 18. Vlap M. 14. Steijn S. 9. van Wolfswinkel R. (C) 10. Lammers S. 7. van Bergen M.	40. Livakovic D. (G) 16. Muldur M. 6. Djiku A. 50. Rodrigo Becao 24. Oosterwolde J. 53. Szymanski S. 13. Fred 34. Amrabat S. 10. Tadic D. (C) 19. En Nesyri Y. 17. Kahveci I. C.
Substitutes
41. Besselink G. 6. Eiting C. 16. El Maach I. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 5. Kuipers B. 3. Lagerbielke G. 30. Ltaief S. 24. Mesbahi J. 11. Rots D. 39. Rots M. 22. Tyton P. (G) 17. Van Hoorenbeeck A.	3. Akaydin S. 95. Akcicek Y. 84. Camci O. (G) 54. Cetin E. (G) 9. Dzeko E. 97. Saint-Maximin A. 23. Tosun C. 20. Under C. 8. Yandas M. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Oosting J.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
14', Vlap M. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Vlap M. ⚽, Regeer Y. (A),
41', Fred 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Kahveci I. C. 🟨,
59', Hilgers M. 🟨,
62', En Nesyri Y. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
62', Kahveci I. C. ↓, Saint-Maximin A. ↑,
67', van Bergen M. ↓, Ltaief S. ↑,
67', Vlap M. ↓, Kjolo M. ↑,
68', Rodrigo Becao 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Tadic D. ⚽, Amrabat S. (A),
76', Amrabat S. 🟨,
77', Tyton P. 🟨,
79', Fred ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
79', Tadic D. ↓, Yandas M. ↑,
88', Steijn S. ↓, Rots D. ↑,

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Fenerbahçe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Twente: Sadilek M. (Shin Injury) Taha Y. (Shin Injury)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Egribayat I. (Knee Injury) Kent R. (Inactive) Kostic F. (Injury) Osayi-Samuel B. (Red Card) Soyuncu C. (Knock)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Twente won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.5:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Twente won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
29.09.24	Twente - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.24	Manchester United - Twente	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.09.24	Almere City - Twente	0:5 ✺
17.09.24	Twente - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
14.09.24	Twente - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTWWT
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
29.09.24	Antalyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.09.24	Fenerbahçe - Saint-Gilloise	2:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
21.09.24	Fenerbahçe - Galatasaray	1:3 ✺
15.09.24	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
30.08.24	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Twente - Fenerbahçe	0:1
24.08.23	Fenerbahçe - Twente	5:1

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