Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)


	Ulytau		Okzhetpes

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.30	2.10
	2.70	3.40	2.10
	2.91	3.60	2.23
	2.68	4.09	2.13	Watch
	2.85	3.40	2.15
	2.90	3.63	2.23	Watch
	2.80	3.40	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.67)	3.55 ↓ (4.15)	2.17 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
32.3%

Draw
25.7%

Okzhetpes
42%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.4%

22.2%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

21.7%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Okzhetpes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Okzhetpes than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Ulytau - Okzhetpes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 2. Carmona Sierra D. 28. Bugulov G. (C) 25. Bukhal G. 12. Afanasenko V. 90. Martin D. 18. Bougnone A. 8. Vachiberadze B. 14. Harada H. 13. Akhmedov A. 45. Zulfikarov B.	22. Lobantsev M. (G) 63. Kuzmichev I. 5. Leo Assunpcao 3. Lototskyi B. 77. Sovpel V. 8. Buribaev N. 9. Borodin D. 25. Marcinho 47. Vasiljev V. 11. Zhangylyshbay T. (C) 17. Umarov S.
Substitutes
4. Chalkin M. 22. Chernyak I. 17. Daniyarov B. 7. Kishi K. 69. Maulenov D. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 11. Smith A. 78. Zakirov T. (G)	91. Abdumannonov B. 12. Dovgal A. (G) 20. Ensebaev M. 14. Mukanov S. 6. Mukhametkhanov Z. 10. Nurgaliyev E. 90. Sadovski U. (. 16. Shamshi B. 7. Vomenko V. 2. Zhaksylykov Z.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Alyuetov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Zulfikarov B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Umarov S. ↓, Abdumannonov B. ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Bougnone A. ⚽, Zulfikarov B. (A),
55', 2 - 0, Zulfikarov B. ⚽,
60', Sovpel V. ↓, Mukanov S. ↑,
60', Buribaev N. ↓, Mukhametkhanov Z. ↑,
66', Borodin D. 🟨,
66', Vasiljev V. ↓, Vomenko V. ↑,
67', Bougnone A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
68', Lototskyi B. 🟨,
72', Zhangylyshbay T. ↓, Nurgaliyev E. ↑,
73', Zulfikarov B. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
73', Akhmedov A. ↓, Chernyak I. ↑,
82', Leo Assunpcao 🟨,
86', Vachiberadze B. ↓, Chalkin M. ↑,
87', Harada H. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,
90', Martin D. 🟨,
90+2', Afanasenko V. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 9th and 5th).

Ulytau is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Okzhetpes shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Ulytau has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 0.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ulytau against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	45:37	8	51
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	27:35	-8	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
18.09.26	Aktobe - Ulytau	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ulytau - Altai Semey	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ulytau - Zhetysu	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Kairat - Ulytau	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLWL
- FC Okzhetpes
Kazakh Premier League
18.09.26	Okzhetpes - Zhenis	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Kaisar - Okzhetpes	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Atyrau - Okzhetpes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
21.03.26	Okzhetpes - Ulytau	2:1
19.07.25	Okzhetpes - Ulytau	1:0
19.04.25	Ulytau - Okzhetpes	0:1
Kazakh First League
15.08.24	Ulytau - Okzhetpes	2:0
31.05.24	Okzhetpes - Ulytau	1:1

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