Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Munaishy Stadium (Atyrau) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Omarov R. (Kaz)


	Atyrau		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.10	2.07	Watch
	3.90	3.63	1.80
	4.05	3.30	1.65
	4.20	3.57	1.82	Watch
	4.05	3.50	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (2.75)	3.42 ↑ (3.1)	1.81 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
23.5%

Draw
26.4%

Ertis Pavlodar
50%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32%

28.4%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

27.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atyrau's form might have worsened.

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ertis Pavlodar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atyrau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ertis Pavlodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atyrau will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Ertis will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atyrau (votes: 1 - 50%). Ertis (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 5. Satanov S. 78. Khvalko E. 71. Prce F. 17. Kalmuratov K. (C) 7. Henrique 4. Rabiu M. 8. Stanic M. 90. Pantelic D. 44. Maksimovic D. 14. Dorofeev K.	1. Rikhard M. (G) 66. Malikaydar S. 5. Toleuov B. 26. Mbodj M. 4. Slambekov D. 12. Karimov R. 9. Leonardo Kalil 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 24. Khalmatov M. 6. Shimamura Y. 7. Mukhametzhanov T.
Substitutes
9. Abdulla A. 20. Boranshiev A. 21. Deputy D. 10. Dzhumatov R. 99. Kereev B. 15. Ofori E. 11. Seytkaliev A. 23. Shaykhov B. 2. Tkachenko Y. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 18. Trufanov Y. 25. Zhumagali S.	8. Esimbekov D. 32. Falaye O. A. 25. Jevtic M. 77. Nurlan A. 15. Nyrkov D. 17. Opeh S. 35. Ramos L. 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G)
Coaches
Smakov S.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Mbodj M. ⚽, Karimov R. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Pantelic D. ⚽, Maksimovic D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 2 - 1, Yudenkov R. (Own goal),
53', Karimov R. ↓, Opeh S. ↑,
54', Khalmatov M. ↓, Esimbekov D. ↑,
61', 2 - 2, Mukhametzhanov T. ⚽, Malikaydar S. (A),
66', Mukhametzhanov T. 🟨,
72', 2 - 3, Yudenkov R. ⚽,
76', Henrique ↓, Seytkaliev A. ↑,
84', Leonardo Kalil ↓, Falaye O. A. ↑,
87', Pantelic D. 🟨,
87', Dorofeev K. ↓, Trufanov Y. ↑,
87', Stanic M. ↓, Boranshiev A. ↑,
88', Satanov S. 🟨,
90+3', Shimamura Y. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
90+4', Rikhard M. 🟨,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 0.

Atyrau is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ertis has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Atyrau has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:24 (averaging 0.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atyrau against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 6:10 goals (averaging 0.6:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Ertis Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29:44	-15	29
14	Atyrau	29	5	12	12	24:35	-11	27

Last Results with these Odds

Atyrau - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.05%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
18.10.26	Altai Semey - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
14.10.26	Atyrau - Yelimay Semey	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Zhenis - Atyrau	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Atyrau - Ordabasy	0:3 ✺
12.09.26	Kaisar - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLWLL
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
18.10.26	Kairat - Ertis Pavlodar	5:0 ✺
14.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Astana	0:1 ✺
10.10.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
16.03.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:1
31.08.19	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	0:3
26.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:0
15.03.19	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:3
30.09.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	1:0
12.08.18	Atyrau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
11.03.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Atyrau	2:1

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