Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, ZAP
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	18:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	14:30	Disney+
Australia	03:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	19:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	19:30	Play Sports 2
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	13:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	01:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	19:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	19:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	17:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	23:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Italy	19:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	19:30	Arena Premium 2
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	22:30	Medianet
Malta	19:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	11:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	01:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	06:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	19:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	03:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	12:30	Disney+
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	18:30	DAZN 4
Romania	20:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Premium 2, SportKlub 3
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	20:30	Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Union Berlin		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	2	3.71	4
	4.35	1.51	5.89	Watch
				Watch
	2.09	3.69	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.04)	3.24 ↓ (3.5)	4.23 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
42.7%

Draw
32.5%

Hamburger SV
24.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.2%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

26.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.8%	7%	30.2%

Union Berlin - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 27 - 62.8%). Hamburg will win (votes: 13 - 30.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 48.4% – 77.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Hamburg (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Union Berlin (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Union Berlin (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Hamburg (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 19. Haberer J. 39. Kohn D. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 23. Ilic A.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. (C) 14. Philippe R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 6. Kemlein A. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 15. Rothe T. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T.	45. Balde F. 24. Capaldo N. 9. Glatzel R. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 26. Peretz D. (G) 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.
Coaches
Bonig S.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Ilic A. (Pen),
38', Muheim M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Burke O. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
59', Haberer J. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
71', Philippe R. 🟨,
76', Omari W. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
76', Philippe R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
76', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
79', Querfeld L. 🟨,
80', Kohn D. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
82', Muheim M. ↓, Capaldo N. ↑,
89', Ansah I. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
90+2', Trimmel C. 🟨,
90+8', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
90+8', Vieira F. 🟥,

Preview

Union Berlin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hamburg is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Union Berlin might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Burcu L. (Ankle Injury) Skov R. (Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Hefti S. (Hip Injury) Pherai I. (Personal Reasons)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Poulsen Y. (Inactive) Torunarigha J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Union Berlin	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Gütersloh - Union Berlin	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WLLWW
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Hamburger SV - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Hamburger SV - Hannover	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.04.19	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	2:0
26.11.18	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	2:2

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