Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Union Berlin		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	2	3.71	4
	4.35	1.51	5.89	Watch
				Watch
	2.09	3.69	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.04)	3.24 ↓ (3.5)	4.23 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
42.7%

Draw
32.5%

Hamburger SV
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.2%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

26%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.8%	7%	30.2%

Union Berlin - Hamburger SV Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 27 - 62.8%). Hamburg will win (votes: 13 - 30.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 48.4% – 77.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Hamburg (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Union Berlin (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Union Berlin (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Hamburg (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 19. Haberer J. 39. Kohn D. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 23. Ilic A.	1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. (C) 14. Philippe R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 7. Dompe J.
Substitutes
11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 6. Kemlein A. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 15. Rothe T. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T.	45. Balde F. 24. Capaldo N. 9. Glatzel R. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 26. Peretz D. (G) 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.
Coaches
Bonig S.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Ilic A. (Pen),
38', Muheim M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Burke O. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
59', Haberer J. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
71', Philippe R. 🟨,
76', Omari W. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
76', Philippe R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
76', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
79', Querfeld L. 🟨,
80', Kohn D. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
82', Muheim M. ↓, Capaldo N. ↑,
89', Ansah I. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
90+2', Trimmel C. 🟨,
90+8', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
90+8', Vieira F. 🟥,

Preview

Union Berlin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hamburg is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hamburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Union Berlin might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Burcu L. (Ankle Injury) Skov R. (Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Hefti S. (Hip Injury) Pherai I. (Personal Reasons)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Poulsen Y. (Inactive) Torunarigha J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Union Berlin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Union Berlin	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
31.08.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Gütersloh - Union Berlin	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WLLWW
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Hamburger SV - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Hamburger SV - Hannover	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
28.04.19	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	2:0
26.11.18	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	2:2

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