Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Werner Park (Papillion, NE)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Omaha		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.45	3.45	1.68
	4.18	3.71	1.69
	4.43	2.81	2.00	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.67
	4.68	3.6	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.43 ↓ (5.85)	3.37 ↓ (4.3)	1.74 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Omaha
20.6%

Draw
27%

Louisville City
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.9%

21.6%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

22.4%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Omaha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Louisville City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Omaha than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Union Omaha that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Louisville City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Union Omaha - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Nuhu R. (C) 23. Boudadi Y. 19. Lawrence C. 14. Kallman B. 5. Orson J. 6. Guediri S. 20. Ors Navarro S. 16. Wootton L. 21. Gomez A. 17. Gutierrez D. 11. Borczak D.	1. Fauroux H. (G) 4. Totsch S. 32. Adams K. 27. Davila E. 15. Perez E. 24. Jones J. 8. Davila T. 2. McFadden A. 6. Duncan Z. 7. Serrano R. 14. Showunmi T.
Substitutes
9. Botello Faz P. 77. Gavilanes A. 99. Jensen C. (G) 3. Malone B. 4. Owusu S. 22. Tekiela K.	47. Akale M. 13. Dia A. 9. Donovan C. 12. Faundez D. (G) 23. Gleadle S. 21. Huerman Q. 25. Wilson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Duncan Z. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Wilson J. ⚽,
35', Perez E. 🟨,
37', Showunmi T. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Gutierrez D. ⚽,
45+1', McFadden A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Ors Navarro S. ↓, Tekiela K. ↑,
46', Wootton L. ↓, Owusu S. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Wilson J. ⚽,
63', Borczak D. ↓, Gavilanes A. ↑,
63', Gomez A. ↓, Botello Faz P. ↑,
64', Showunmi T. ↓, Donovan C. ↑,
64', Perez E. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
72', 1 - 3, Donovan C. ⚽,
74', Boudadi Y. 🟥,
78', Gutierrez D. ↓, Malone B. ↑,
78', Wilson J. ↓, Huerman Q. ↑,
78', McFadden A. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
83', 1 - 4, Donovan C. ⚽, Gleadle S. (A),
87', 1 - 5, Huerman Q. ⚽, Gleadle S. (A),
89', Orson J. 🟨,

Preview

Union Omaha is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Louisville City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Louisville City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Louisville City is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Louisville City - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 62.45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Omaha
USL League One
13.05.26	One Knoxville - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Union Omaha - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Union Omaha - Greenville Triumph	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Indy Eleven - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
USL League One
18.04.26	Richmond Kickers - Union Omaha	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTWWL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
09.05.26	Louisville City - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0:2 ✺
02.05.26	Detroit City - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
29.04.26	Houston Dynamo - Louisville City	2:1 ET ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Louisville City - Fort Wayne	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Louisville City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWW

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