Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Mansiche (Trujillo)

Referee: Zanovelli P. C. (Bra)


	Universidad César Vallejo		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25
	3.1	3.25	2.25
	3.25	3.36	2.31
	3.22	3.36	2.27
	3.1	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.21	3.28	2.23	Watch
	3.2	2.95	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.9)	3.21 ↓ (3.23)	2.26 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad César Vallejo
29.3%

Draw
29.2%

Independiente Medellín
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.9%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad César Vallejo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad César Vallejo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Universidad César Vallejo - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind Medellín: 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grados C. (G) 32. Madrid J. 5. Deneumostier A. 6. Perea G. 28. Santibanez S. 10. Velez J. 8. Ysique F. 13. Barreto G. 17. Mena Y. 27. Ramirez A. 23. Da Silva P.	25. Chaux E. (G) 5. Lima P. 24. Ortiz J. 2. Chaverra L. 17. Fory J. 23. Torijano F. 8. Garcia M. 31. Moreno D. 10. Monsalve M. 77. Jhon Vasquez 27. Leon Muniz B.
Substitutes
7. Barreto O. 44. Benavente C. 33. Benitez E. 14. Cabello C. 22. Flores F. 29. Loyola N. 20. Noronha O. 24. Olaya S. 12. Rabines M. (G)	15. Alvarado J. 30. Arizala J. 34. Blanco I. (G) 12. Chunga J. (G) 16. Davila A. 26. Graciano C. 20. Montano J. 19. Moreno Y. 29. Palacios J. 4. Palacios M. 14. Perlaza B.
Coaches
Salas G.	Arias A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Leon Muniz B. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
17', Velez J. 🟨,
19', Deneumostier A. 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Velez J. ⚽,
31', Chaverra L. 🟨,
45', 1 - 2, Leon Muniz B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Chaverra L. ↓, Graciano C. ↑,
53', Moreno D. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Garcia M. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
63', Mena Y. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
63', Ysique F. ↓, Barreto O. ↑,
64', Velez J. ↓, Benavente C. ↑,
73', 1 - 4, Monsalve M. ⚽, Lima P. (A),
75', Da Silva P. ↓, Olaya S. ↑,
77', Garcia M. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
77', Jhon Vasquez ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
79', 1 - 5, Perlaza B. ⚽, Leon Muniz B. (A),
80', Leon Muniz B. ↓, Davila A. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches César Vallejo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente Medellín in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

César Vallejo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Independiente Medellín will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches César Vallejo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad César Vallejo
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.24	Cienciano - Universidad César Vallejo	1:1 ✺
29.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Always Ready - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
20.04.24	ADT Tarma - Universidad César Vallejo	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWLLW
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
28.04.24	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
21.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:2 ✺
18.04.24	Patriotas - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
14.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Independiente Medellín - Universidad César Vallejo	4:2

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