Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 28

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.87	3.20	3.70
	1.82	3.55	4.20	Watch
	1.9	3.52	4.35
	1.88	3.47	4.09	Watch
	1.88	3.45	4.1
	1.86	3.41	4.21	Watch
	1.86	3.25	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.75)	3.41 ↓ (3.7)	4.09 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
50%

Draw
27.3%

SD Aucas
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

25.2%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

24.7%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Aucas (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Universidad Católica del Ecuador will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 50%). Aucas (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 24. Nazareno D. 33. Canga L. 4. Jhon Chancellor 44. Valencia E. 8. Clavijo E. 10. Martinez F. (C) 9. Londono A. 28. Diaz M. 32. Alonso M. 7. Fajardo J.	13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 4. Burdisso M. 2. Morales S. 6. Spina A. L. 11. Bolanos R. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A.
Substitutes
29. Anangono G. 5. Cacciabue J. 1. Cueva L. (G) 11. Evans J. 37. Medina C. 30. Mejia E. 14. Mina J. 15. Moreno L. 18. Palacios B. 23. Rodriguez A. 19. Sevillano M. 26. Yanez S.	7. Andrade J. M. 29. Arroyo L. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 9. Monti R. 30. Oyola B. 10. Preciado E. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M. 17. Zambrano C.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Burdisso M. 🟨,
33', Clavijo E. 🟨,
38', Martinez F. 🟨,
45+1', Morales S. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 0, Fajardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Martinez F. ↓, Moreno L. ↑,
59', Valencia E. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
66', Bolanos R. ↓, Preciado E. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ⚽, Zova A. (A),
72', Alonso M. ↓, Mejia E. ↑,
73', Jhon Chancellor ↓, Medina C. ↑,
80', Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
90', Fajardo J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
90', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Uni Católica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Uni Católica has had a series of away games.

In this match, Uni Católica is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 2.3:1.5).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Manta	5:1 ✺
17.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
10.08.26	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
05.08.26	Vinotinto - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TWTLW
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
26.08.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.08.26	Delfín - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
12.08.26	La Unión - SD Aucas	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
03.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	6:2
15.04.25	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:0 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.11.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	3:2
19.05.24	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2
17.08.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	2:2

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