Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Herrera Y. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Universidad Católica del Ecuador		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.25	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.2
	2.4	3.25	2.9
	2.42	3.26	3.01
	2.43	3.25	3.02	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.41	3.02	3.26	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.52)	3.19 ↑ (3.11)	3.09 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
40%

Draw
29.6%

Vitória Salvador
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

30.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

30%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lara J. (G) 29. Anangono G. 33. Canga L. 3. Mosquera I. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 15. Moreno L. 17. Troya R. 9. Londono A. 23. Rodriguez A. 11. Diaz I. 7. Fajardo J.	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 2. Claudinho 5. Lucas Halter 3. Ze Marcos 83. Jamerson 44. Baralhas 43. Edu 8. Ronald Lopes 30. Matheuzinho 39. Janderson 22. Lucas Braga
Substitutes
5. Cacciabue J. 20. Castillo Saa J. L. 8. Clavijo E. 28. Diaz M. 4. Jhon Chancellor 30. Maciel M. 18. Palacios B. 22. Romo R. (G) 14. Sanchez I. 44. Valencia E.	96. Carlos Eduardo 18. Caua Ramos 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 76. Felipe Cardoso 35. Fintelman (G) 7. Gustavo Silva 38. Leo Pereira 11. Osvaldo 6. Pepe 28. Ricardo Ryller 10. Wellington Rato
Coaches
Martinez D.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Troya R. 🟥,
27', Baralhas 🟨,
34', Jamerson 🟨,
37', Ze Marcos 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ze Marcos ↓, Fabricio ↑,
46', Londono A. ↓, Castillo Saa J. L. ↑,
63', Janderson ↓, Erick ↑,
66', Rodriguez A. ↓, Clavijo E. ↑,
66', Diaz I. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Baralhas (Own goal),
79', Moreno L. 🟨,
80', Baralhas ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
80', Lucas Braga ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
83', Anangono G. ↓, Jhon Chancellor ↑,
83', Fajardo J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,

Preview

Uni Católica is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Vitória may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Uni Católica could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uni Católica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - LDU Quito	3:1 ✺
18.05.25	Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Defensa y Justicia - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.05.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Cerro Largo - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLTTW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cerro Largo - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1

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