Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 16 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Universitario de Deportes		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.55
	2.8	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.86	3.13	2.76
	2.81	3.13	2.76
	2.7	3.2	2.4
	2.87	3.3	2.56	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.86)	3.17 ↑ (3.16)	2.59 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
33.7%

Draw
29.8%

Botafogo RJ
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.2%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Universitario de Deportes - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Botafogo will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 29. Corzo A. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 18. Urena R. 24. Polo A. 16. Perez M. 23. Murrugarra J. 34. Portocarrero S. 19. Flores E. 20. Valera A.	12. John Victor (G) 22. Suarez D. 3. Lucas Halter 15. Bastos 16. Hugo 5. Danilo Barbosa 17. Marlon Freitas 7. Luiz Henrique 6. Tche Tche (C) 10. Savarino J. 11. Junior Santos
Substitutes
26. Ancajima H. 14. Bolivar J. 27. Cabanillas N. 10. Calcaterra H. 7. Celi Y. 17. Concha J. 35. Dorregaray D. 8. Gonzales C. 30. Guzman P. 11. Rivera J. 21. Romero D. (G) 2. Saravia M.	20. Barboza A. 33. Carlos Eduardo 79. Fabiano 1. Fernandez R. (G) 26. Gregore 32. Jacob Montes 47. Jeffinho 8. Patrick de Paula 4. Ponte M. 97. Raul (G) 44. Segovia L. 67. Yarlen
Coaches
Bustos F.	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Di Benedetto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Urena R. 🟨,
65', Luiz Henrique ↓, Jeffinho ↑,
66', Valera A. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
67', Flores E. ↓, Gonzales C. ↑,
75', Murrugarra J. ↓, Concha J. ↑,
75', Perez M. ↓, Calcaterra H. ↑,
76', Danilo Barbosa 🟨,
77', 0 - 1, Jeffinho ⚽, Savarino J. (A),
79', Danilo Barbosa ↓, Gregore ↑,
80', Urena R. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
89', Bastos 🟨,
89', Savarino J. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
90', Tche Tche ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Universitario de Deportes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Botafogo is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Botafogo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Botafogo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Universitario de Deportes won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
12.05.24	Universitario de Deportes - Sporting Cristal	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Universitario de Deportes - Junior Barranquilla	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.24	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	2:0 ✺
28.04.24	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	6:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Universitario de Deportes	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTLWL
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.05.24	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.24	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.05.24	Botafogo RJ - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Universitario de Deportes	3:1

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