Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 27 May 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Referee: Legario F. (Per)


	Unión Comercio		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.45
	2.68	3.2	2.62	Watch
	2.84	3.15	2.54
	2.84	3.05	2.51
	2.6	3.2	2.5
	2.75	3.26	2.69	Watch
	2.7	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.97)	3.16 ↓ (3.17)	2.55 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
34.2%

Draw
29.4%

Cienciano
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

29.2%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

28.2%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Unión Comercio - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Cienciano will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barrios I. (G) 15. Jimenez O. 3. Paredes T. (C) 31. Serra P. 17. Vargas D. 5. Sanchez K. 7. Carranza M. 24. Javier Navea 13. Angulo Grueso B. A. 16. Villamarin R. 29. Zeta H.	31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 7. Estrada J. 2. Rugel L. 6. Fuentes P. 16. Nunez O. 14. Torrejon C. (C) 22. Rodriguez A. 17. Guivin Tanta J. 55. Ramua A. 20. Lecaros A. 21. Garces C.
Substitutes
23. Alvarez J. 18. Carhualllanqui J. 12. Diaz W. (G) 4. Perez V. 14. Regalado I. 32. Rios D. 26. Tandazo J. 30. Torres J. 19. Uribe C.	27. Ayarza A. 3. Benitez M. 8. La Torre D. 5. Mifflin L. 1. Nolasco J. (G) 35. Paredes G. 4. Portales J. 18. Ramirez S. 10. Ritacco G.
Coaches
Loayza A.	Ibanez Holzmann O. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Angulo Grueso B. A. ⚽, Javier Navea (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ramua A. ↓, Ritacco G. ↑,
46', Fuentes P. ↓, Mifflin L. ↑,
50', Sanchez K. 🟨,
67', Javier Navea ↓, Uribe C. ↑,
76', Guivin Tanta J. ↓, Ayarza A. ↑,
76', Lecaros A. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
76', Angulo Grueso B. A. ↓, Tandazo J. ↑,
77', Zeta H. ↓, Regalado I. ↑,
90', Paredes G. 🟨,
90+2', Torrejon C. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Garces C. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 3.

Unión Comercio is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cienciano is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cienciano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
18.05.24	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	5:1 ✺
10.05.24	Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
04.05.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	3:1 ✺
27.04.24	Sport Boys - Unión Comercio	0:0 ✺
19.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLTL
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
20.05.24	Cienciano - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
13.05.24	Alianza Atlético - Cienciano	0:1 ✺
03.05.24	Cienciano - Universidad César Vallejo	1:1 ✺
27.04.24	Cusco - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
19.04.24	Cienciano - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
15.08.23	Unión Comercio - Cienciano	2:0
18.03.23	Cienciano - Unión Comercio	3:1
30.09.15	Unión Comercio - Cienciano	3:1
24.05.15	Cienciano - Unión Comercio	3:2
30.11.14	Unión Comercio - Cienciano	3:0
30.08.14	Cienciano - Unión Comercio	2:1
18.06.13	Cienciano - Unión Comercio	0:2

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