Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Avispa Fukuoka

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.08	3.2	3.45
	2.14	3.38	3.71
	2.09	3.34	3.65	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.4
	2.08	3.25	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.16)	3.28 ↓ (3.3)	3.57 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
45.1%

Draw
28.6%

Avispa Fukuoka
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

25.6%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with V-Varen Nagasaki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 25. Kushibiki K. 6. Egawa Y. 22. Onaga H. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 34. Matsumoto T. 23. Yoneda S. 11. Campbell N. 10. Matheus Jesus 9. Thiago	24. Obata Y. (G) 3. Nara T. (C) 37. Tashiro M. 16. Oka T. 2. Yuzawa M. 6. Shigemi M. 17. Akino H. 29. Maejima Y. 14. Nago S. 25. Kitajima Y. 13. Ben Khalifa N.
Substitutes
21. Diego Pituca 4. Dudu Giusti 41. Hasegawa M. 13. Hatano G. (G) 8. Iwasaki Y. 33. Kasayanagi T. 19. Sawada T. 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R.	22. Fujimoto K. 41. Fujita K. (G) 47. Hashimoto Y. 27. Michiwaki Y. 8. Okuno K. 32. Sani Brown A. 18. Sato S. 28. Tsuruno R. 33. Yamawaki K.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Tsukahara S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yuzawa M. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
62', Onaga H. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
62', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
66', Teruyama H. 🟨,
72', Kitajima Y. ↓, Sato S. ↑,
72', Akino H. ↓, Okuno K. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Thiago (Penalty Awarded),
78', Nago S. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
78', Ben Khalifa N. ↓, Sani Brown A. ↑,
80', Teruyama H. ↓, Dudu Giusti ↑,
86', Matsumoto T. ↓, Yamada R. ↑,
86', Thiago ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2.

Recent performances by V-Varen Nagasaki have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Avispa Fukuoka is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

V-Varen Nagasaki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

V-Varen Nagasaki could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Tsujioka Y. (Red Card)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.4:0.8).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Avispa Fukuoka: 0.71% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.71%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.69%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
28.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
13.02.26	Vissel Kobe - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWLL
- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
27.02.26	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
13.07.22	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
Japan J2 League
27.09.20	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:3
04.07.20	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
07.09.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0
02.03.19	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
16.08.17	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1
15.04.17	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1

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