Match Info

J2 League - Round 30

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Kataller Toyama

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	7.5	Watch
	1.33	4.85	7.7
	1.35	5.32	9.08
	1.41	4.19	8.08	Watch
	1.35	4.65	7.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.38)	4.8 ↑ (4.55)	8.05 ↑ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
69.1%

Draw
19.4%

Kataller Toyama
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

20.3%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3%

18.8%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Kataller Toyama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Half - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - V-Varen Nagasaki (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: V-Varen Nagasaki will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): V-Varen Nagasaki will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 29. Arai I. 44. Egawa Y. 3. Sekiguchi M. 5. Yamaguchi H. 8. Diego Pituca 50. Onaga H. 10. Matheus Jesus 33. Kasayanagi T. 11. Junio E.	1. Tagawa T. (G) 28. Fuseya S. 4. Kamiyama K. 19. Saneto Y. 13. Fukazawa S. 8. Matsuoka D. 24. Kawai Y. 16. Sueki H. 11. Ogawa K. 39. Furukawa M. 27. Yoshihira T.
Substitutes
16. Emerson Deocleciano 31. Harada G. (G) 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 19. Sawada T. 41. Tadokoro R. 17. Takahata K. 18. Yamasaki R. 23. Yoneda S.	42. Hirao T. (G) 5. Imase J. 17. Inoue N. 18. Ito T. 3. Kagawa Y. 49. Maeda I. 23. Nishiya S. 7. Sasaki Y. 48. Ueda K.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Adachi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Fuseya S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kasayanagi T. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
46', Junio E. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
56', Saneto Y. ↓, Imase J. ↑,
63', Matsuoka D. ↓, Nishiya S. ↑,
63', Furukawa M. ↓, Inoue N. ↑,
68', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Yoneda S. ↑,
75', Sueki H. ↓, Ueda K. ↑,
75', Yoshihira T. ↓, Ito T. ↑,
76', Egawa Y. ↓, Emerson Deocleciano ↑,
78', Ueda K. 🟨,
90', Diego Pituca ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Yamasaki R. (A),
90+3', Kushibiki K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

V-Varen Nagasaki has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Kataller Toyama has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, V-Varen Nagasaki is the obvious favorite.

We predict that V-Varen Nagasaki will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
13.09.25	Omiya Ardija - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fujieda MYFC	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Sagan Tosu - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Consadole Sapporo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWW
- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
14.09.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Kataller Toyama - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Júbilo Iwata - Kataller Toyama	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Kataller Toyama - Imabari	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Oita Trinita - Kataller Toyama	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.05.25	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
31.08.14	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kataller Toyama	2:0
28.06.14	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0
20.07.13	Kataller Toyama - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1

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