Match Info

JAPAN: J2 League - Round 29

Date: 31 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.61	3.7	4.4
	1.7	3.75	4.5	Watch
	1.66	4.23	5.2
	1.7	3.81	4.69	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.5
	1.68	3.81	4.77	Watch
	1.7	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.51)	3.82 ↓ (4.34)	4.66 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
55.7%

Draw
24.3%

Tochigi
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

21.6%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

21.1%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that V-Varen Nagasaki's form might have worsened.

Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for V-Varen Nagasaki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Tochigi Predictions

Users Predictions: V-Varen Nagasaki will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Wakahara T. (G) 8. Masuyama A. 48. Teruyama H. 5. Tanaka H. 23. Yoneda S. 35. Abe T. 17. Akino H. 19. Sawada T. 6. Matheus Jesus 20. Nakamura K. 7. Marcos Guilherme	27. Tanno K. (G) 13. Saka K. 2. Hiramatsu W. 33. Rafael Costa 23. Fukushima H. 22. Aoshima T. 16. Hyon R. 6. Omori S. 19. Oshima K. 15. Okuda K. 32. Miyazaki K.
Substitutes
44. Aoki Y. 31. Harada G. (G) 32. Joppu S. 38. Matsuzawa K. 14. Nagura T. 40. Shirai H. 24. Yamada R.	9. Ismaila O. 24. Kanbe K. 1. Kawata S. (G) 42. Minamino H. 10. Mori T. 5. Otani N. 45. Yamamoto O.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Kobayashi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Abe T. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Nakamura K. ⚽, Marcos Guilherme (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Akino H. ↓, Yamada R. ↑,
58', Nakamura K. ↓, Nagura T. ↑,
63', Saka K. ↓, Otani N. ↑,
63', Oshima K. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
63', Okuda K. ↓, Yamamoto O. ↑,
69', Otani N. 🟨,
71', Omori S. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
79', Sawada T. ↓, Matsuzawa K. ↑,
79', Masuyama A. ↓, Aoki Y. ↑,
81', Yamada R. 🟨,
88', Fukushima H. ↓, Kanbe K. ↑,
90+1', Marcos Guilherme ↓, Shirai H. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Minamino H. ⚽, Miyazaki K. (A),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

V-Varen Nagasaki has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tochigi is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

V-Varen Nagasaki could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match V-Varen Nagasaki is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches V-Varen Nagasaki won 9 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21-10.

Including matches at home between the teams V-Varen Nagasaki won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
24.08.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
21.08.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
Japan J2 League
17.08.24	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:2 ✺
10.08.24	Yokohama FC - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0 ✺
03.08.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLTL
- Tochigi SC
Japan J2 League
25.08.24	Tochigi - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
17.08.24	Tochigi - Blaublitz Akita	0:0 ✺
10.08.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tochigi	4:3 ✺
03.08.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Tochigi	0:2 ✺
14.07.24	Tochigi - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
30.03.24	Tochigi - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
19.08.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tochigi	1:2
12.03.23	Tochigi - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
21.09.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tochigi	1:1
05.06.22	Tochigi - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:3
13.11.21	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tochigi	3:0
19.06.21	Tochigi - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:2

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