Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 11

Date: 22 June 2023, Thursday

Location: Estádio Vasco da Gama (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Goncalves Lima J. (Bra)


	Vasco da Gama		Goiás

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.8
	1.72	3.6	5.1
	1.81	3.47	5.3
	1.78	3.3	4.6
	1.77	3.55	4.75	Watch
	1.76	3.45	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.81)	3.48 ↓ (3.49)	4.86 ↑ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
53.4%

Draw
27.1%

Goiás
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

26.9%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

26.4%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Goiás has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Goiás than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	13.6%	18.2%

Vasco da Gama - Goiás Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Goiás will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Puma Rodriguez 35. Miranda 3. Leo (C) 6. Lucas Piton 85. Mateus Carvalho 23. Ze Gabriel 25. Marlon Gomes 18. Andrey Santos 7. Alex Teixeira 77. Rayan Vitor	23. Tadeu (C) 2. Maguinho 3. Lucas Halter 19. Bruno Melo 6. Sander 11. Diego Goncalves 40. Everton Morelli 12. Willian Oliveira 5. Ze Ricardo 10. Palacios J. 17. Matheus Peixoto
Substitutes
20. Carabajal G. 12. Cruz R. 16. Erick Marcus 15. Figueiredo 11. Gabriel Pec 97. Ivan (G) 33. Lyncon 14. Orellano L. 66. Paulo Victor 26. Rodrigo Alves 44. Ze Vitor	27. Alesson 22. Apodi 18. Ariel 13. Bruno Santos 43. Edu 60. Guilherme 66. Hugo 79. Lucas Emmanuel 88. Marcelo Rangel (G) 30. Matheus Santos 95. Rodrigues Adelino dos Santos V. 4. Sidimar
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Evangelista A.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Vasco has the most likely position - 16 (8.77%), project points - 45, currently - 6, a chance of relegated (28%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Goiás has the most likely position - 20 (19.69%), project points - 37, currently - 8, a good chance of relegated (61%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 45, importance 46, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 3.

Vasco has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Goiás is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Goiás could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Goiás have a series of home games.

In this match Vasco is a favorite.

There will not play in Vasco: Andrey Santos (Injury) Carabajal G. (Injury) Eguinaldo (Injury) Gabriel Dias (Injury) Orellano L. (Injury) Paulo Henrique (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Vasco won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 18-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
11.06.23	Internacional RS - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
05.06.23	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	1:4 ✺
27.05.23	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
20.05.23	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	4:2 ✺
14.05.23	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Goiás EC
Brazilian Serie A
11.06.23	Goiás - Fluminense	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.06.23	Goiás - Gimnasia La Plata	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.06.23	Goiás - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
31.05.23	Goiás - Paysandu	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.05.23	São Paulo - Goiás	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
27.09.21	Vasco da Gama - Goiás	2:0
30.06.21	Goiás - Vasco da Gama	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.21	Vasco da Gama - Goiás	3:2
01.11.20	Goiás - Vasco da Gama	1:1
Copa do Brasil
26.08.20	Goiás - Vasco da Gama	1:3 penalties
12.03.20	Vasco da Gama - Goiás	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
18.11.19	Vasco da Gama - Goiás	1:1

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