Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Vasco da Gama		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	6	Watch
	1.58	4	5.5
	1.58	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.58	4.01	6.06
	1.62	3.80	5.34	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.58	3.9	5.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.82)	3.89 ↑ (3.39)	5.66 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
59.3%

Draw
24.1%

Independiente del Valle
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

27.6%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

30.2%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Vasco da Gama - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ind del Valle will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Vasco (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vasco da Gama will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 25. Hugo Moura 12. Victor Luis 3. Tche Tche 8. Jair 77. Rayan 17. Moreira N. 7. David 99. Vegetti P. (C)	22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Cortez G. 55. Guagua D. 6. Alcivar J. 7. Mercado P. 30. Ibarra R. 77. Spinelli C. 16. Briones R.
Substitutes
90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 14. Guilherme Estrella 26. Leandrinho 4. Lemos M. 44. Luiz Gustavo 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J.	12. Bores E. (G) 26. Cazares 11. Hoyos M. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 17. Rodriguez A. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Fernando Diniz 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Mercado P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Victor Luis ↓, Leandrinho ↑,
57', Hugo Moura 🟨,
59', David ↓, Garre B. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Vegetti P. ⚽, Joao Victor (A),
69', Vegetti P. 🟨,
70', Mercado P. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
70', Briones R. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
72', Leandrinho 🟨,
73', Rayan 🟨,
75', Moreira N. ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
76', Jair ↓, Sforza J. ↑,
78', Ibarra R. ↓, Santamaria T. ↑,
87', Tche Tche ↓, Guilherme Estrella ↑,
88', Cortez G. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-4. 2nd leg.

Vasco has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ind del Valle is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vasco won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Vasco da Gama	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
31.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLLWL
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.07.25	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Vasco da Gama	4:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
15.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Vasco da Gama	4:0

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