Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Independiente del Valle		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.25	6	Watch
	1.63	3.6	5.5
	1.65	3.55	5.4	Watch
	1.77	3.38	5.81
				Watch
	1.65	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.58	5.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.85)	3.46 ↑ (3.4)	5.65 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
56.2%

Draw
27.2%

Vasco da Gama
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

27.5%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.5%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente del Valle's performance.

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vasco da Gama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Independiente del Valle - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Ind del Valle (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Cortez G. 55. Guagua D. 6. Alcivar J. 7. Mercado P. 30. Ibarra R. 77. Spinelli C. 16. Briones R.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 77. Rayan 3. Tche Tche 25. Hugo Moura 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P. (C) 19. GB
Substitutes
12. Bores E. (G) 26. Cazares 11. Hoyos M. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 17. Rodriguez A. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 2. Zarate L.	90. Alex Teixeira 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 15. Garre B. 14. Guilherme Estrella 8. Jair 4. Lemos M. 44. Luiz Gustavo 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Lucas Piton 🟥,
15', GB ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
37', Hugo Moura 🟨,
44', Alcivar J. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Carabajal M. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Moreira N. ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Mercado P. ⚽,
51', 3 - 0, Spinelli C. ⚽, Briones R. (A),
61', Mercado P. 🟨,
63', Briones R. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
69', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
69', Alcivar J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
69', Guagua D. ↓, Cazares ↑,
71', Rayan ↓, David ↑,
71', Leo Jardim 🟨,
82', 4 - 0, Mercado P. ⚽,
87', Ibarra R. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
87', Tche Tche ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
87', Vegetti P. ↓, Garre B. ↑,
90+2', Cazares (Pen),

Preview

1st leg.

Ind del Valle is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vasco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ind del Valle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind del Valle is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.27 are the expected chance of winning is 21.87%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
22.06.25	LDU Quito - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWTT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
31.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.25	Vasco da Gama - FBC Melgar	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWLWL

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