Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV


	Vasco da Gama		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	6
	1.63	3.3	5
	1.59	3.6	6
	1.64	3.53	6.22
	1.61	3.53	6.21
	1.53	3.6	6.5
	1.58	3.81	6.35
	1.59	3.6	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.45)	3.59 ↓ (4.14)	6.04 ↓ (7.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
58.6%

Draw
26%

Operário Ferroviario
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

22.6%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

20.5%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vasco da Gama's form might have worsened.

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Vasco da Gama - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Operário PR will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Operário PR (4.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Operário PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 44. Luiz Gustavo 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 3. Tche Tche 11. Coutinho 77. Rayan 99. Vegetti P. (C) 17. Moreira N.	1. Elias Curzel (G) 72. Thales Oleques 30. Joseph (C) 93. Allan Godoi 27. Gabriel Feliciano 20. Fransergio 8. Zuluaga J. 10. Boschilia 29. Allano 89. Daniel Amorim 32. Marcos Paulo
Substitutes
28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 8. Jair 4. Lemos M. 43. Lucas Freitas 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 12. Victor Luis	99. Ademilson 90. Cristiano 2. Diogo Mateus 5. Indio 17. Jhemerson 16. Miranda 88. Neto Paraiba 36. Nilson Junior 7. Rodrigo Rodrigues 97. Ronald 33. Vagner (G) 9. Vinicius Mingotti
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Bruno Pivetti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Rayan ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Zuluaga J. ↓, Neto Paraiba ↑,
69', Coutinho ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
69', Moreira N. ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
74', Fransergio ↓, Indio ↑,
75', Rayan ↓, Adson ↑,
75', Marcos Paulo ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,
81', Gabriel Feliciano ↓, Cristiano ↑,
81', Daniel Amorim ↓, Ademilson ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Ademilson ⚽, Cristiano (A),
Penalties (7 - 6)
1, Vegetti P. (Pen),
1, Allano (Pen),
2, Tche Tche (Pen),
2, Neto Paraiba (Pen),
3, Lucas Piton (Pen),
3, Boschilia (Pen),
4, Joao Victor (Pen),
4, Rodrigo Rodrigues (Pen),
5, Mateus Carvalho (Pen),
5, Ademilson (Pen),
6, Adson (Pen),
6, Indio (Pen),
7, Hugo Moura (Pen),
7, Cristiano (Pen),
8, Paulo Henrique (Pen),
8, Thales Oleques (Pen),
9, Augusto L. (Pen),
9, Allan Godoi (Pen),
10, Ademilson 🟨,
10, Adson 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Vasco is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Operário PR is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Lanús - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
11.05.25	Cuiabá - Operário Ferroviario	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
04.10.22	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	2:3
24.06.22	Vasco da Gama - Operário Ferroviario	3:0
21.08.21	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	2:0
29.05.21	Vasco da Gama - Operário Ferroviario	0:2

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