Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Vasco da Gama		Audax Italiano

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.41	4.45	6.9	Watch
	1.43	4.52	7.29
	1.44	4.58	7.11	Watch
	1.4	4.4	6.5	Watch
	1.43	4.45	6.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.46)	4.46 ↑ (4.2)	6.83 ↑ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
65.4%

Draw
20.9%

Audax Italiano
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

22%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.1%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Audax Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audax Italiano than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Audax Italiano Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. (C) 46. Cuesta C. 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 25. Hugo Moura 98. JP 18. Hinestroza M. 17. Moreira N. 20. Brenner 77. Spinelli C.	1. Ahumada T. (G) 16. Rojas Munoz O. J. 29. Ortiz M. 4. Pina D. 35. Rebolledo R. 8. Collao M. (C) 28. Mateos F. 23. Matus E. 27. Fuentes M. 11. Troyansky F. 21. Chiaverano G.
Substitutes
28. Adson 11. Andres Gomez 66. Cuiabano 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 9. Matheus Franca 96. Paulo Henrique 30. Robert Renan 10. Rojas J. 3. Tche Tche 23. Thiago Mendes 64. Walace Fernandes	18. Aedo N. 10. Cabral R. 9. Coelho D. 33. Fuenzalida I. 25. Garrido P. (G) 7. Guajardo P. 20. Jimenez M. 17. Loyola F. 14. Monreal D. 12. Pina C. (G) 22. Valdes M. 2. Zenteno V.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Lema G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', JP 🟨,
35', JP 🟨,
43', Rojas Munoz O. J. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Brenner ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rojas Munoz O. J. ↓, Guajardo P. ↑,
46', Moreira N. ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
46', Hinestroza M. ↓, Thiago Mendes ↑,
51', Collao M. 🟨,
60', Chiaverano G. ↓, Coelho D. ↑,
60', Collao M. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Fuentes M. ⚽, Troyansky F. (A),
66', Spinelli C. ↓, David ↑,
66', Brenner ↓, Andres Gomez ↑,
71', Andres Gomez 🟨,
78', Matus E. ↓, Aedo N. ↑,
83', Cuesta C. 🟥,
84', Hugo Moura 🟨,
86', 1 - 2, Troyansky F. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Rodriguez J. ↓, Adson ↑,
90+1', Troyansky F. ↓, Monreal D. ↑,
90+3', Aedo N. 🟨,
90+7', Ortiz M. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Vasco has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Audax Italiano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Audax Italiano has had a series of home games.

In this match, Vasco is the clear favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Vasco: 20.19%

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.43%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Remo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Barracas Central - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Coritiba - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLTW
- Audax Italiano
Chilean Primera Division
11.04.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad Católica	3:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Audax Italiano - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
03.04.26	OHiggins - Audax Italiano	2:1 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
31.03.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:3 ✺
25.03.26	Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

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