Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 37

Date: 13 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo (Venice)

Referee: Maggioni L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Venezia		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4	Watch
	1.93	3.4	3.8
	1.85	3.75	3.75	Watch
	2	3.62	3.98
	1.94	3.55	3.84	Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.08)	3.55 ↑ (3.2)	3.87 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venezia
49.1%

Draw
26.5%

Perugia
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

29.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Venezia - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Venezia will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Perugia will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Venezia: 58.6% – 97%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Venezia has the most likely position - 10 (23.03%), project points - 49, currently - 46, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (15%), a very small chance of promoted (1%), not chance of win league.

Perugia has the most likely position - 18 (32.85%), project points - 39, currently - 36, a good chance of relegated (79%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has quality 32, importance 54, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Venezia won 2.

Venezia is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Perugia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Perugia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Venezia is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Venezia won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Venezia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venezia FC
Italian Serie B
06.05.23	Nuova Cosenza - Venezia	1:1 ✺
01.05.23	Venezia - Modena	5:0 ✺
23.04.23	Ternana - Venezia	1:4 ✺
15.04.23	Venezia - Palermo	3:2 ✺
10.04.23	Reggina - Venezia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWWWL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.05.23	Perugia - Cagliari	0:5 ✺
30.04.23	SPAL - Perugia	1:1 ✺
22.04.23	Perugia - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Genoa - Perugia	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Perugia - Modena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1
31.07.20	Venezia - Perugia	3:1
29.12.19	Perugia - Venezia	0:1
27.02.19	Venezia - Perugia	2:3
06.10.18	Perugia - Venezia	1:0
03.06.18	Venezia - Perugia	3:0
14.04.18	Perugia - Venezia	1:1

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