Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		Técnico Universitario

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.82	3.05	Watch
	2.42	2.92	2.98
	2.52	3.2	2.92
	2.16	3.18	3.25	Watch
	2.5	2.92	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.16)	3.01 ↓ (3.18)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
38.6%

Draw
30.9%

Técnico Universitario
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27.9%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Técnico Universitario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 2. Iriarte I. 4. Aguirre A. 36. Nardelli G. (C) 23. Gomez L. 5. Coba K. 40. Mera F. 11. Mina A. 10. Luna D. 77. Ibarra R. 17. Monti R.	12. Villafuerte J. (G) 23. Herrera O. 31. Carcelen Ed. 26. Medranda M. 17. Patta E. (C) 19. Corozo B. 70. Torres E. 21. Jimenez J. 28. Perea M. 27. Minda T. 77. Vera D.
Substitutes
13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 26. Hernandez E. 30. Julio M. 15. Larotonda C. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 8. Melo A. 3. Micolta C. 6. Ona C. 22. Rodriguez E. 52. Rodriguez J. 12. Santos M. (G) 18. Ushina K.	10. Andrade J. 9. Blanco J. 11. Carabali E. 22. Chala R. 5. Cristobal R. 30. Cuero Fabian 36. Perez M. 3. Ponguillo J. 1. Yustiz Y. (G)
Coaches
Schurrer G.	Cumbicus G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Torres E. ⚽, Patta E. (A),
35', Iriarte I. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Coba K. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
46', Mera F. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
57', Mitre L. 🟥,
61', Mina A. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
63', Vera D. ↓, Blanco J. ↑,
64', Corozo B. 🟨,
78', Minda T. ↓, Cristobal R. ↑,
84', Perea M. ↓, Andrade J. ↑,
84', Nardelli G. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
87', Monti R. 🟨,
88', 0 - 2, Blanco J. ⚽, Jimenez J. (A),
89', Blanco J. 🟨,
90+9', 1 - 2, Monti R. (Pen),

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Libertad Loja - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.10.25	Manta - Técnico Universitario	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Técnico Universitario - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Delfín - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.08.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	0:1
20.04.25	Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto	1:3

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