Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Noevir Stadium (Kobe) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:00	Stan Sport
China	14:00	K-Ball
Japan	15:00	DAZN Japan


	Vissel Kobe		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.70	3.10	2.55
	2.45	3.1	2.78	Watch
	2.67	3.3	2.86
	2.49	3.24	2.93	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.8
	2.58	3.34	2.78	Watch
	2.46	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.43)	3.23 ↑ (3.1)	2.78 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vissel Kobe
36.8%

Draw
29.2%

Machida Zelvia
33.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

30.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Vissel Kobe - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Gonda S. (G) 24. Sakai G. (C) 3. Thuler M. 16. Caetano 15. Diego 7. Ideguchi Y. 23. Iwamoto Y. 5. Goke Y. 11. Muto Y. 10. Osako Y. 41. Nagato K.	1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 2. Ouwejan T. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 31. Lavi N. 33. Akimoto T. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 9. Ogawa K.
Substitutes
44. Hidaka M. 26. Jean Patric 62. Kawabata H. 29. Komatsu R. 25. Kuwasaki Y. 1. Maekawa D. (G) 13. Sasaki D. 20. Watanabe K. 4. Yamakawa T.	5. Dresevic I. 15. Duke M. 24. Kim Min-Tae 13. Morita T. (G) 88. Nakamura H. 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 23. Shirasaki R. 34. Tokumura F.
Coaches
Skibbe M.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Nishimura T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Okamura D. ↓, Kim Min-Tae ↑,
63', Osako Y. ↓, Komatsu R. ↑,
64', Goke Y. ↓, Sasaki D. ↑,
69', Nagato K. ↓, Jean Patric ↑,
70', Nishimura T. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
70', Lavi N. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,
71', Mae H. 🟨,
84', Ouwejan T. ↓, Nakamura H. ↑,
88', Soma Y. ↓, Tokumura F. ↑,
90', Diego 🟨,
90+2', Caetano ↓, Yamakawa T. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 6th and 4th).

In recent outings, Vissel Kobe has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Machida Zelvia is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Vissel Kobe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Vissel Kobe: Ogihara T. (Knee Injury) Sasaki D. (Knee Injury) Tominaga N. (Knee Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Vissel Kobe has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:6 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vissel Kobe against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals (averaging 0.5:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Machida	9	6	2	1	22:10	12	20
6	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14:9	5	19

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Vissel Kobe: 13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vissel Kobe
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Vissel Kobe	2:1 ✺
18.10.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
14.10.26	Vissel Kobe - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Vissel Kobe	4:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWLW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
21.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	0:5 ✺
18.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
15.10.26	Tampines Rovers - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
22.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Vissel Kobe	3:1
Japan J1 League
10.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Vissel Kobe	2:0
20.04.25	Vissel Kobe - Machida Zelvia	1:0
26.06.24	Vissel Kobe - Machida Zelvia	0:0
13.04.24	Machida Zelvia - Vissel Kobe	1:2

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