Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Barradao (Salvador) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	14:30	Canal del Futbol
Mexico	13:30	Azteca Deportes
Spain	21:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Usa	15:30	Fanatiz


	Vitória Salvador		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.30	2.85	Watch
	2.40	3.40	2.85
	2.55	3.25	2.70	Watch
	2.46	3.48	3.03
	2.64	3.45	2.64	Watch
	2.40	3.40	2.95
	2.59	3.34	2.80	Watch
	2.41	3.35	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.53)	3.37 ↓ (3.44)	2.84 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
38.3%

Draw
28.2%

Athletico Paranaense
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

27.6%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.8%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (C) 98. Matheusinho 2. Britez E. 36. Luan Candido 83. Jamerson 6. Emmanuel Martinez 95. Caique Goncalves 33. Erick 10. Matheuzinho 12. Tarzia D. 79. Renato Kayzer	1. Mycael (G) 55. Bruno Baldini 33. Aguirre F. 37. Esquivel L. 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 3. Darlan 26. Edenilson 23. Fabricio 77. Laquintana I. 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 11. Osvaldo 8. Pochettino T. 15. Walace 71. Yuri (G) 88. Ze Vitor	47. Chiqueti 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 23. Santos (G) 15. Stabelini K. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Jadson 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Jamerson (Own goal),
29', 1 - 1, Renato Kayzer ⚽, Britez E. (A),
41', Tarzia D. 🟨,
42', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
45+4', Bruno Baldini 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matheusinho ↓, Walace ↑,
68', Tarzia D. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
71', Joao Cruz ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
80', Matheuzinho ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
80', Renato Kayzer ↓, Fabricio ↑,
80', Bruno Baldini ↓, Stabelini K. ↑,
81', Leozinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
81', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
87', Erick ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
90+1', Gilberto 🟨,
90+5', Marinho 🟥,
90+6', Viveros K. ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
90+6', Luan Candido 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 13th and 3rd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Vitória: Baralhas (Broken Leg) Camutanga (Broken Leg) Dudu (Back Injury) Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury) Fabiano (Knee Injury) Nathan Mendes (Knee Injury) Ramon (Leg Injury) Rene (Yellow Cards) Riccieli (Calf Injury).

Confirmed absences for Athletico PR: Benavidez G. (Muscle Injury) Calderon Vargas K. A. (Inactive) Dantas (Inactive) Teran C. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Athletico PR: Claudinho (Injury).

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Vitória has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:34 (averaging 1.5:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vitória against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 15:14 goals (averaging 1.9:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Athletico-PR	33	15	9	9	50:40	10	54
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35:46	-11	38

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 34.81%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.26	Corinthians - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Vitória Salvador - Chapecoense	4:0 ✺
20.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Cruzeiro	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWLT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
12.10.26	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	1:4 ✺
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
06.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	4:0
03.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	3:1
02.11.24	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	1:2
30.06.24	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
17.11.18	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
29.07.18	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	4:0

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