Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Brazil	SporTV
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vitória Salvador		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.40	3.60	Watch
	2.10	3.30	3.50
	2.20	3.15	3.35
	2.23	3.32	3.65
	2.15	3.45	3.42	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.40
	2.14	3.46	3.66	Watch
	2.15	3.30	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.13)	3.33 ↓ (3.43)	3.5 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
44.2%

Draw
28.6%

Grêmio
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.2%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Vitória Salvador - Grêmio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Vitória Salvador will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (C) 98. Matheusinho 2. Britez E. 36. Luan Candido 83. Jamerson 88. Ze Vitor 95. Caique Goncalves 33. Erick 10. Matheuzinho 12. Tarzia D. 91. Rene	1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 6. Gustavo Martins 82. Wallace 54. Pedro Gabriel 8. Noriega E. 11. Tete 20. Villasanti M. (C) 10. Krovinovic F. 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 26. Edenilson 70. Fabiano 23. Fabricio 18. Kauan 7. Marinho 11. Osvaldo 8. Pochettino T. 79. Renato Kayzer 69. Wanderson 41. Wendell Santos 71. Yuri (G)	50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 15. Danilo Barbosa 99. Enamorado J. 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 18. Joao Pedro 30. Matheus Nascimento 5. Nardoni J. 65. Riquelme 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
38', Pavon C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pedro Gabriel ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
48', Erick 🟨,
48', Caio Paulista 🟨,
55', Caique Goncalves 🟨,
59', Noriega E. 🟨,
63', 1 - 0, Rene ⚽, Matheusinho (A),
69', Noriega E. ↓, Danilo Barbosa ↑,
69', Pavon C. ↓, Nardoni J. ↑,
69', Villasanti M. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
72', Erick ↓, Marinho ↑,
78', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
79', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
81', Caique Goncalves ↓, Edenilson ↑,
82', Tarzia D. ↓, Fabricio ↑,
82', Matheuzinho ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
90', Rene ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 0.

Recent form of Vitória has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vitória will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Alex Bruno (Inactive) Camutanga (Broken Leg) Dudu (Back Injury) Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nathan Mendes (Knee Injury) Pochettino T. (Inactive) Ramos R. (Knee Injury) Riccieli (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Dodi (Knee Injury) Marlon (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Vitória: Anderson (Knee Injury) Ramon (Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Cabral J. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 9:26. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Vitória Salvador - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.64%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 27.64%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
03.09.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.03.26	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0
28.09.25	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	3:1
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1
04.12.24	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1
21.07.24	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0
Copa do Brasil
03.08.21	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	1:0
27.07.21	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	0:3

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