Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vitória Salvador		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.7
	2.15	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.81
	2.15	3.16	3.73	Watch
	2.2	3	3.4
	2.15	3.18	3.66	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.43)	3.15 ↓ (3.24)	3.65 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
43.9%

Draw
30.1%

Santos
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.1%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

29.9%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitória Salvador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Vitória Salvador - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Santos will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitória: 57.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Vitória (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Vitória (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Santos (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Santos (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Santos (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 44. Baralhas 5. Lucas Halter (C) 3. Ze Marcos 83. Jamerson 28. Ricardo Ryller 8. Ronald Lopes 30. Matheuzinho 7. Gustavo Silva 79. Renato Kayzer 11. Osvaldo	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 29. Godoy L. 3. Joao Basso 14. Luan Peres 33. Souza 8. Rincon T. (C) 6. Ze Rafael 32. Rollheiser B. 22. Barreal A. 36. Deivid Washington 11. Guilherme
Substitutes
99. Carlinhos 96. Carlos Eduardo 18. Caua Ramos 2. Claudinho 43. Edu 33. Erick 35. Fintelman (G) 39. Janderson 38. Leo Pereira 22. Lucas Braga 66. Maykon Jesus 10. Wellington Rato	49. Gabriel Bontempo 20. Hyan 42. Joao Alencar 1. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 38. Kevyson 79. Luca Meirelles 25. Luisao 41. Mateus Xavier 10. Neymar 16. Thaciano 9. Tiquinho Soares
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Xavier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Luan Peres 🟨,
17', Matheuzinho 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Guilherme ⚽, Souza (A),
28', Ricardo Ryller 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gustavo Silva ↓, Lucas Braga ↑,
53', Baralhas 🟨,
64', Barreal A. ↓, Neymar ↑,
64', Guilherme ↓, Thaciano ↑,
64', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Erick ↑,
64', Osvaldo ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
71', Joao Basso ↓, Luisao ↑,
78', Deivid Washington ↓, Luca Meirelles ↑,
79', Rollheiser B. ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
90', Baralhas ↓, Janderson ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 0.

Vitória has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santos has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vitória may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vitória is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vitória: Pepe (Red Card) Willian Oliveira (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Escobar G. (Red Card) Gil (Injury) Joao Schmidt (Thigh Injury) Ze Ivaldo (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Vitória: Caceres R. (Inactive) Gabriel (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1.1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cerro Largo - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWTL
- Santos FC
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	CRB Maceio - Santos	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Corinthians - Santos	1:0 ✺
12.05.25	Santos - Ceará	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Santos - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.10.18	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1
03.06.18	Santos - Vitória Salvador	5:2
16.10.17	Santos - Vitória Salvador	2:2
21.06.17	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:2
17.11.16	Santos - Vitória Salvador	3:2
24.07.16	Vitória Salvador - Santos	2:3
07.12.14	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1

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