Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Academia Vitoria SC (Guimarães)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães B		Amarante

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.98	2.48
	2.94	3.1	2.68
	2.97	2.74	2.72	Watch
	2.75	2.7	2.63
	2.83	2.67	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.78)	2.84 ↑ (2.79)	2.62 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães B
32.4%

Draw
32.5%

Amarante
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

33.3%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

34.4%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Vitoria Guimarães B - Amarante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Fernandes J. (G) 76. Alcobia 74. Carrera R. 79. Carvalho D. 73. Miguel Vaz 55. Rebelo D. 93. Rika 96. Rodrigo Silva (C) 72. Rodrigues T. 32. Tepe M. 56. Verdi S.	1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 90. Arome 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura 22. Vivas S.
Substitutes
67. Bruma 97. Carreira D. 60. Deivid M. 62. Fernando Silva 70. Peixoto R. 37. Pinto H. . Ribeira J. 71. Silva D. (G) 95. Vunge J.	88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 9. Cardoso F. 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 8. Zangre A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Pedro R. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Filipe J. ⚽,
40', 0 - 3, Arome ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 1.

Guimarães B has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Amarante is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guimarães B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães B won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães B - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.37%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
09.05.26	Trofense - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTTT
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.26	Amarante - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Trofense - Amarante	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Amarante	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1
29.11.25	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2
17.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Amarante	2:3
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.01.24	Vitoria Guimarães B - Amarante	1:1
17.09.23	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	3:0
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:4

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