Match Info

Serie A - Round 21

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bologna		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.42	3.35	2.98	Watch
	2.3	3.42	3.12	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.9
	2.32	3.35	3.31
	2.33	3.33	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.21)	3.31 ↑ (3.13)	3.09 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
40.4%

Draw
28.8%

Fiorentina
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

29.9%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

29.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.9%	37.5%	14.6%

Bologna - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 23 - 50%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 6 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 37%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 35.6% – 64.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Fiorentina (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Bologna (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ravaglia F. (G) 2. Holm E. 41. Vitik M. 14. Heggem T. 33. Miranda J. 8. Freuler R. (C) 4. Pobega T. 7. Orsolini R. 21. Odgaard J. 28. Cambiaghi N. 9. Castro S.	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 44. Fagioli N. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
16. Casale N. 24. Dallinga T. 29. De Silvestri L. 30. Dominguez B. 80. Fabbian G. 19. Ferguson L. 17. Immobile C. 22. Lykogiannis C. 6. Moro N. 25. Pessina M. (G) 11. Rowe J. 1. Skorupski L. (G) 77. Sulemana I. 20. Zortea N.	62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 6. Ranieri L. 7. Sohm S. 19. Solomon M.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Mandragora R. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
38', Holm E. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Piccoli R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Odgaard J. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
46', Orsolini R. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
46', Holm E. ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
46', Freuler R. ↓, Moro N. ↑,
72', Mandragora R. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
72', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
72', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
72', Pobega T. ↓, Ferguson L. ↑,
77', Miranda J. 🟨,
80', Parisi F. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Fabbian G. ⚽, Rowe J. (A),
90', Ferguson L. 🟨,
90+4', Fagioli N. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bologna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bologna might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bologna: Bernardeschi F. (Collarbone injury) Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Lucumi J. (Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dzeko E. (Foot Injury) Kean M. (Ankle Injury) Richardson A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35% Bologna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
15.01.26	Verona - Bologna	2:3 ✺
10.01.26	Como - Bologna	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Bologna - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Inter Milan - Bologna	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Bologna - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLLT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
11.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
26.10.25	Fiorentina - Bologna	2:2
18.05.25	Fiorentina - Bologna	3:2
15.12.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:0
14.02.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	2:0
Coppa Italia
09.01.24	Fiorentina - Bologna	1:0 penalties
Italian Serie A
12.11.23	Fiorentina - Bologna	2:1
05.02.23	Fiorentina - Bologna	1:2

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