Match Info

Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Watford		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.22	3.45	3.2	Watch
	2.23	3.49	3.16	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.1
	2.28	3.3	3.07	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.52)	3.37 ↓ (3.42)	3.16 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
42.2%

Draw
28%

Birmingham City
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.6%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

27.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.5%	22.5%	0%

Watford - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 31 - 79.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 20.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watford: 66.8% – 92.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Watford will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 25. Abankwah J. 3. Alleyne M. 6. Pollock M. 16. Bola M. 42. Maamma O. 5. Kyprianou H. 10. Louza I. 7. Ince T. 8. Chakvetadze G. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.	25. Beadle J. (G) 23. Sampsted A. 5. Neumann P. 6. Robinson J. 20. Cochrane A. 16. Roberts P. 24. Iwata T. 18. Willumsson W. T. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 14. Anderson K. 9. Furuhashi K.
Substitutes
34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 66. Irankunda N. 4. Keben K. 23. Mendy N. 22. Morris J. 29. Petris J. 18. Semedo V. 17. Sissoko M.	21. Allsop R. (G) 41. Cashin E. 33. Ducksch M. 17. Dykes L. 27. Fujimoto K. 42. Isichei D. 30. Koumas L. 12. Leonard M. 40. Mazwi M.
Coaches
Gracia J.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Ince T. ⚽, Chakvetadze G. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Ince T. ⚽,
43', Pollock M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sampsted A. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
46', Willumsson W. T. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
46', Chakvetadze G. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Ince T. ⚽, Irankunda N. (A),
62', Cochrane A. ↓, Cashin E. ↑,
63', Dykes L. 🟨,
64', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
68', Furuhashi K. ↓, Ducksch M. ↑,
69', Louza I. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
70', Maamma O. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
77', Ince T. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
77', Anderson K. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
78', Paik Seung-Ho 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 3.

Watford is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Birmingham is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Watford: Baah K. (Hamstring Injury) Doumbia M. (International duty) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury) Kayembe E. (International duty) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury) Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Cochrane A. (Inactive) Doyle T. (Red Card) Gray D. (Injury) Laird E. (Hamstring Injury) Osayi-Samuel B. (International duty) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Watford: Akomeah T. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Watford won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:5. (average 1.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Watford won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:0. (average 2:0).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Birmingham: 4.51% Watford: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12:11	1	11
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7:10	-3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
29.12.25	Norwich City - Watford	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Leicester City - Watford	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Wrexham - Watford	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Watford - Sheffield Wednesday	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTT
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
29.12.25	Birmingham City - Southampton	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Sheffield United - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Birmingham City - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Queens Park Rangers - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.12.25	Birmingham City - Watford	2:1
16.03.24	Birmingham City - Watford	0:1
16.09.23	Watford - Birmingham City	2:0
14.03.23	Watford - Birmingham City	3:0
16.08.22	Birmingham City - Watford	1:1
20.03.21	Watford - Birmingham City	3:0
12.12.20	Birmingham City - Watford	0:1

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