Match Info

Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	09:30	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	13:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	09:30	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	14:30	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	07:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	09:30	Disney+
Colombia	07:30	Disney+
Croatia	13:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	13:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	13:30	Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	13:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	13:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	14:30	COSMOTE Sport 1
Iceland	12:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	18:00	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	12:30	NOW
Israel	14:30	Sport 2
Japan	21:30	DAZN Japan
Kenya	15:30	Gotv
Kosovo	13:30	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	20:30	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	13:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	06:30	Disney+
Netherlands	13:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
Nigeria	13:30	SupeSport ESPN 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	13:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	07:30	Disney+
Portugal	12:30	Sport TV2
Serbia	13:30	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	20:30	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	13:30	Voyo
Slovenia	13:30	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	14:30	SupeSport ESPN
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:30	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event
Turkey	15:30	Exxen
United Kingdom	12:30	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, BBC Two, NOW TV, Premier Sports Player, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Showcase, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	09:30	Disney+
Usa	07:30	Paramount+
Venezuela	08:30	Disney+


	Birmingham City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.86	3.45	4.43	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.57	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.4
	1.85	3.38	4.33	Watch
	1.87	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.77)	3.41 ↓ (3.52)	4.46 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
51.3%

Draw
27.6%

Derby County
21.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.9%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

27.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.1%	20.7%	17.2%

Birmingham City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 17 - 60.7%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 42.6% – 78.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Derby (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Beadle J. (G) 24. Iwata T. 4. Klarer C. (C) 6. Robinson J. 41. Cashin E. 12. Leonard M. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 16. Roberts P. 28. Stansfield J. 10. Gray D. 33. Ducksch M.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. (C) 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 16. Thompson L. 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 10. Brewster R. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
21. Allsop R. (G) 17. Dykes L. 27. Fujimoto K. 9. Furuhashi K. 30. Koumas L. 5. Neumann P. 23. Sampsted A. 18. Willumsson W. T. 47. Wynne G.	32. Adams E. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 15. Salvesen L. 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Davies C.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Gray D. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Brewster R. (A),
29', Ward J. 🟨,
39', Ward J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
46', Brewster R. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
49', Klarer C. 🟨,
58', Cashin E. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
58', Ducksch M. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Robinson J. ⚽,
71', Stansfield J. 🟨,
71', Langas S. 🟨,
74', Paik Seung-Ho 🟨,
78', Koumas L. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
78', Leonard M. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,
85', Agyemang P. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
90+2', Klarer C. 🟥,
90+6', Langas S. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2.

Recent form of Birmingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Birmingham is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Doyle T. (Red Card) Laird E. (Hamstring Injury) Osayi-Samuel B. (International duty) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Ankle Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:40. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Birmingham won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:23. (average 1.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
20.12.25	Sheffield United - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Birmingham City - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Queens Park Rangers - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Southampton - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
01.12.25	Birmingham City - Watford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLLW
- Derby County
English League Championship
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
15.12.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.01.22	Derby County - Birmingham City	2:2
10.09.21	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:0
24.04.21	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2
29.12.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	0:4
22.07.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:3
28.09.19	Derby County - Birmingham City	3:2
19.04.19	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:2

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