Match Info

Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SupeSport ESPN 1
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	Birmingham City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.86	3.45	4.43	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.57	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.4
	1.85	3.38	4.33	Watch
	1.87	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.77)	3.41 ↓ (3.52)	4.46 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
51.3%

Draw
27.6%

Derby County
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.9%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

27.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.1%	20.7%	17.2%

Birmingham City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 17 - 60.7%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 42.6% – 78.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Derby (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Beadle J. (G) 24. Iwata T. 4. Klarer C. (C) 6. Robinson J. 41. Cashin E. 12. Leonard M. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 16. Roberts P. 28. Stansfield J. 10. Gray D. 33. Ducksch M.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. (C) 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 16. Thompson L. 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 10. Brewster R. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
21. Allsop R. (G) 17. Dykes L. 27. Fujimoto K. 9. Furuhashi K. 30. Koumas L. 5. Neumann P. 23. Sampsted A. 18. Willumsson W. T. 47. Wynne G.	32. Adams E. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 35. Nelson C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 15. Salvesen L. 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Davies C.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Gray D. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Brewster R. (A),
29', Ward J. 🟨,
39', Ward J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
46', Brewster R. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
49', Klarer C. 🟨,
58', Cashin E. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
58', Ducksch M. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Robinson J. ⚽,
71', Stansfield J. 🟨,
71', Langas S. 🟨,
74', Paik Seung-Ho 🟨,
78', Koumas L. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
78', Leonard M. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,
85', Agyemang P. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
90+2', Klarer C. 🟥,
90+6', Langas S. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2.

Recent form of Birmingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Birmingham is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Doyle T. (Red Card) Laird E. (Hamstring Injury) Osayi-Samuel B. (International duty) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Ankle Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:40. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Birmingham won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:23. (average 1.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
20.12.25	Sheffield United - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Birmingham City - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Queens Park Rangers - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Southampton - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
01.12.25	Birmingham City - Watford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLLW
- Derby County
English League Championship
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
15.12.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Derby County - Leicester City	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.01.22	Derby County - Birmingham City	2:2
10.09.21	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:0
24.04.21	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2
29.12.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	0:4
22.07.20	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:3
28.09.19	Derby County - Birmingham City	3:2
19.04.19	Birmingham City - Derby County	2:2

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