Match Info

Championship - Round 4

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Donohue M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Burnley		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.70	2.05	Watch
	3.10	3.60	2.20
	3.05	3.60	2.14	Watch
	3.30	3.83	2.16
	2.82	3.76	2.31	Watch
	3.25	3.80	2.10
	3.13	3.80	2.23	Watch
	3.15	3.65	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.19)	3.72 ↑ (3.34)	2.17 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Burnley
30.5%

Draw
25.6%

Middlesbrough
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

28.3%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

28.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burnley's form might have worsened.

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Middlesbrough's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burnley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Middlesbrough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	17.9%	57.1%

Burnley - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 7 - 25%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 16 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 38.8% – 75.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiss M. (G) 22. Sonne O. 15. Ahmedhodzic A. 18. Ekdal H. 14. Roberts C. (C) 28. Mejbri H. 8. Raghouber U. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 17. Hountondji A. 12. Satpaev D. 11. Amdouni Z.	1. Vitek R. (G) 12. Ayling L. (C) 5. Jones A. 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 6. Berhalter S. 10. Morris A. 30. Neto Borges 8. McGree R. 22. Joseph K. 7. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
3. Alleyne M. 27. Broja A. 37. Coudert G. (G) 10. Edwards M. 19. Ramazani L. 21. Ramsey A. 20. Sambo S. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M. 2. Walker K.	17. Arfsten M. 31. Brynn S. (G) 3. Byram S. 19. Castledine L. 9. Conway T. 44. Ibeh C. 4. Phillips A. 21. Pukstas R. 13. Strelec D.
Coaches
Hayen N.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Morris A. ⚽, Berhalter S. (A),
28', Mejbri H. 🟨,
39', Lankshear W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hountondji A. ↓, Ramazani L. ↑,
46', Mejbri H. ↓, Alleyne M. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Raghouber U. ⚽, Amdouni Z. (A),
61', McGree R. ↓, Conway T. ↑,
61', Joseph K. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
71', Jones A. 🟨,
71', Amdouni Z. ↓, Ramsey A. ↑,
74', Jones A. ↓, Phillips A. ↑,
77', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
81', Satpaev D. ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
87', Lankshear W. ↓, Strelec D. ↑,
90+1', Raghouber U. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.

Burnley has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Burnley: Agyei E. (Injury) Banel J. (Injury) Barnes A. (Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Humphreys B. (Inactive) Laurent J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Coach's decision)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.64% Burnley: 0.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9:17	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English League Championship
29.08.26	Norwich City - Burnley	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Bradford City - Burnley	1:0 penalties ✺
English League Championship
23.08.26	West Bromwich Albion - Burnley	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Burnley - West Ham United	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Burnley - Notts County	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLTW
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
29.08.26	Middlesbrough - West Bromwich Albion	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Doncaster Rovers - Middlesbrough	1:3 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Blackburn Rovers - Middlesbrough	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Middlesbrough - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
07.08.26	Middlesbrough - Wrexham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.12.24	Middlesbrough - Burnley	0:0
06.12.24	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1
07.04.23	Middlesbrough - Burnley	1:2
17.12.22	Burnley - Middlesbrough	3:1
English Premier League
08.04.17	Middlesbrough - Burnley	0:0
26.12.16	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:0
English League Championship
19.04.16	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1

Upcoming Matches