Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Bristol City

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.50	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3.60	3.70
	1.87	3.50	3.95	Watch
	2.04	3.75	3.69
	2.02	3.59	3.6	Watch
	2.00	3.70	3.65
	1.97	3.62	4.08	Watch
	1.97	3.55	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.84)	3.6 ↓ (3.65)	3.77 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
48.4%

Draw
26.4%

Bristol City
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

25.6%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

24.6%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Burnley - Bristol City Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Bristol City will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 50%). Bristol City (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiss M. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 18. Ekdal H. 3. Alleyne M. 22. Sonne O. 8. Raghouber U. 29. Laurent J. 21. Ramsey A. 5. Hatate R. 19. Ramazani L. 17. Hountondji A.	1. Tickle S. (G) 21. Cardines R. 16. Dickie R. 2. Eissat L. 3. Pring C. 12. Knight J. (C) 8. Williams J. 17. Wallace J. 27. Yah G. 10. Twine S. 9. Tolaj L.
Substitutes
15. Ahmedhodzic A. 11. Amdouni Z. 27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 30. Castell L. 37. Coudert G. (G) 99. Igor 28. Mejbri H. 14. Roberts C.	99. Adebayo E. 23. Ballard D. 40. Collins B. (G) 38. Eile N. 20. Greenwood S. 7. Hirakawa Y. 14. Horvat T. 4. Randell A. 19. Tanner G.
Coaches
Hayen N.	Skubala M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Ekdal H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Hountondji A. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
46', Ekdal H. ↓, Ahmedhodzic A. ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Ramsey A. ⚽, Hatate R. (A),
61', Wallace J. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,
62', Yah G. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
63', Hatate R. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
70', Ramazani L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
72', Twine S. ↓, Greenwood S. ↑,
72', Pring C. ↓, Tanner G. ↑,
80', Tolaj L. ↓, Adebayo E. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Dickie R. ⚽, Cardines R. (A),
83', Walker K. 🟨,
85', Ramsey A. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Hirakawa Y. ⚽,
90+4', Broja A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 5.

Burnley is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bristol City has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bristol City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Burnley is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:7. (average 2.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:2. (average 2:0.3).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bristol City: 1.02% Burnley: 0.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13:17	-4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Burnley - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.84%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English League Championship
02.09.26	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Norwich City - Burnley	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Bradford City - Burnley	1:0 penalties ✺
English League Championship
23.08.26	West Bromwich Albion - Burnley	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Burnley - West Ham United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLT
- Bristol City
English League Championship
01.09.26	Preston North End - Bristol City	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Bristol City - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Birmingham City - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Bristol City - Millwall	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
06.08.26	Bristol City - Walsall	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.03.25	Burnley - Bristol City	1:0
23.11.24	Bristol City - Burnley	0:1
29.04.23	Bristol City - Burnley	1:2
17.09.22	Burnley - Bristol City	2:1
English FA Cup
28.01.17	Burnley - Bristol City	2:0
English League Championship
28.12.15	Burnley - Bristol City	4:0
29.08.15	Bristol City - Burnley	1:2

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