Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 37

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: London Stadium (London)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Norway	Viaplay
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World	beIN Sports Connect


	West Ham United		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.85	4	3.8
	1.85	4.1	3.7
	1.9	4.25	3.7
	1.81	4.5	3.82
	1.88	4.27	3.78
	1.83	4.2	3.6
	1.86	4.09	4	Watch
	1.85	4.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.67)	4.2 ↓ (4.43)	3.76 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

West Ham United
51.7%

Draw
22.8%

Luton Town
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

21.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

20.4%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

West Ham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that West Ham United's form might have worsened.

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for West Ham United than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for West Ham United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luton Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	7.9%	28.9%

West Ham United - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. West Ham will win (votes: 23 - 62.2%). Luton will win (votes: 11 - 29.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for West Ham: 46.6% – 77.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Areola A. (G) 5. Coufal V. 4. Zouma K. (C) 21. Ogbonna A. 33. Emerson 7. Ward-Prowse J. 28. Soucek T. 20. Bowen J. 10. Paqueta L. 14. Kudus M. 9. Antonio M.	24. Kaminski T. (G) 16. Burke R. 15. Mengi T. 2. Osho G. 32. Onyedinma F. 28. Lokonga A. S. 6. Barkley R. 45. Doughty A. 9. Morris C. (C) 14. Chong T. 11. Adebayo E.
Substitutes
19. Alvarez E. 42. Casey K. 17. Cornet M. 3. Cresswell A. 40. Earthy G. 1. Fabianski L. (G) 18. Ings D. 2. Johnson B. 45. Mubama D.	8. Berry L. 18. Clark J. 27. Hashioka D. 38. Johnson J. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 7. Ogbene C. 30. Townsend A. 10. Woodrow C.
Coaches
Moyes D.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Lokonga A. S. ⚽, Doughty A. (A),
10', Barkley R. 🟨,
39', Barkley R. ↓, Clark J. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
52', Emerson 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Ward-Prowse J. ⚽,
66', 2 - 1, Soucek T. ⚽,
74', Onyedinma F. ↓, Ogbene C. ↑,
76', Antonio M. ↓, Earthy G. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Earthy G. ⚽, Kudus M. (A),
79', Burke R. 🟨,
84', Morris C. 🟨,
84', Paqueta L. ↓, Ings D. ↑,
84', Emerson ↓, Cresswell A. ↑,
87', Burke R. ↓, Woodrow C. ↑,
87', Doughty A. ↓, Berry L. ↑,
90+2', Ogbonna A. ↓, Casey K. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

West Ham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match West Ham is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches West Ham won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- West Ham United
English Premier League
05.05.24	Chelsea - West Ham United	5:0 ✺
27.04.24	West Ham United - Liverpool	2:2 ✺
21.04.24	Crystal Palace - West Ham United	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.04.24	West Ham United - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
English Premier League
14.04.24	West Ham United - Fulham	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTLTL
- Luton Town
English Premier League
03.05.24	Luton Town - Everton	1:1 ✺
27.04.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
20.04.24	Luton Town - Brentford	1:5 ✺
13.04.24	Manchester City - Luton Town	5:1 ✺
06.04.24	Luton Town - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
01.09.23	Luton Town - West Ham United	1:2
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Luton Town - West Ham United	1:1

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