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Current Win Probability
Western United 64.9%
Draw 19.5%
Wellington Phoenix 15.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
55.1%
22.3%
22.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.5%
22.1%
22.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Western United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western United's performance.
Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wellington Phoenix might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western United than the current prediction. (-9.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Western United that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wellington Phoenix could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
86.4%
4.5%
9.1%
Western United - Wellington Phoenix Predictions
Users Predictions:
Western United will win
(19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%). Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
33. Sutton M. (G) 13. Russell T. 6. Imai T. (C) 30. Leonard D. 29. Shamoon C. A. 10. Grimaldi M. 23. Bozinovski R. 32. Thurgate A. 77. Danzaki R. 19. Botic N. 9. Ibusuki H.
30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 6. Payne T. 15. Hughes I. 4. Wootton S. 19. Sutton S. 3. Piper C. 27. Sheridan M. 14. Rufer A. (C) 12. Geraldes F. 7. Barbarouses K. 21. Rojas M.
Substitutes
4. Donachie J. 44. Lauton J. 14. Najdovski J. 7. Najjarine R. 24. Ruhs M. 37. Vickery L. 70. Vonja M. (G)
35. Boon D. (G) 29. Brooke-Smith L. 9. Ishige H. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 25. Nagasawa K. 8. Retre P. 41. Walker N.
Coaches
Aloisi J.
Italiano G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Bozinovski R. ⚽,
9', Piper C. 🟨,
13', Rufer A. 🟨,
21', Leonard D. 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Ibusuki H. ⚽,
35', Thurgate A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 3 - 0, Grimaldi M. ⚽,
57', Rojas M. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
62', 4 - 0, Grimaldi M. ⚽, Danzaki R. (A),
64', Bozinovski R. ↓, Lauton J. ↑,
66', Rufer A. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
67', Piper C. ↓, Walker N. ↑,
67', Sheridan M. ↓, Nagasawa K. ↑,
67', Geraldes F. ↓, Ishige H. ↑,
72', Danzaki R. ↓, Vickery L. ↑,
72', Ibusuki H. ↓, Ruhs M. ↑,
78', Grimaldi M. ↓, Najjarine R. ↑,
78', Botic N. ↓, Najdovski J. ↑,
83', 4 - 1, Walker N. ⚽,
Preview
One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Western United won 1.
Recent matches Western United is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Wellington is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
In this match Western United is absolute favorite.
There will not play in Wellington: Colakovski S.
(Knee Injury)
Conchie F.
(Injury)
Sloane-Rodrigues G.
(Knock)
There are questionable in Western United: Donachie J.
(Calf Injury)
Last 15 head-to-head matches Western United won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 12:28 (average 0.8:1.9).
Including matches at home between the teams Western United won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4:13 (average 0.6:1.9).
Australia
Finland
Hong-kong
India
Indonesia
Macao
Malaysia
New-zealand
Singapore
South-korea
United-kingdom
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Sutton M. (G) 
Imai T. (C) 
Shamoon C. A. 
Kelly-Heald A. (G) 
Wootton S. 
Geraldes F. 
Najdovski J. 
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