Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Promotion - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN


	Willem II		Waalwijk

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.45	Watch
	1.99	3.73	3.64
	2.04	3.48	3.48	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	1.96	3.76	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.21)	3.61 ↑ (3.5)	3.47 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Willem II
47.3%

Draw
25.8%

Waalwijk
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

26.6%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

25%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Willem II's performance.

Waalwijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Willem II - Waalwijk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Waalwijk will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Willem II: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon Hodl T. (G) 3. Stam F. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 7. Doodeman N. 8. Twigt C. 6. Besselink G. 20. El Allouchi M. 9. Haen D. 47. Baartmans S.	1. van Osch Y. (G) 19. Bakboord N. 35. Postma L. 4. van Gelderen L. 55. Held N. 8. van Kaam D. 10. van der Venne R. 14. Boetius J-P. 7. Cleonise D. 29. Kramer M. (C) 5. Familia-Castillo J.
Substitutes
23. Abildgaard L. 17. Bamba S. 11. Culum A. 49. de Jonge M. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 15. Et Taibi A. 14. Mathijsen J. 19. van Aalst U. 21. van der Steen W. (G) 45. van Esdonk J. 22. van Loon P. 28. Verheydt T.	26. Bramel T. (G) 12. Fage R. 20. Kuster H. 6. Roemeratoe G. 21. Schaapman M. 16. Spenkelink M. (G) 28. van Beekveld Q. 30. van der Veen Y. 3. van Eijma R. 18. van Hedel R. 25. Witteveen M.
Coaches
Stegeman J.	Duits S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Baartmans S. ↓, van Aalst U. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, El Allouchi M. ⚽, Stam F. (A),
51', Besselink G. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Boetius J-P. ⚽,
64', Postma L. 🟨,
71', Haen D. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
71', Cleonise D. ↓, Kuster H. ↑,
71', Boetius J-P. ↓, Fage R. ↑,
76', van Kaam D. 🟨,
77', Tjoe a On N. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
77', El Allouchi M. ↓, Culum A. ↑,
82', Postma L. ↓, van Eijma R. ↑,
82', van Kaam D. ↓, van der Veen Y. ↑,
84', Held N. 🟨,
87', Twigt C. 🟨,
90+2', Kramer M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 4.

Willem II is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Waalwijk's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Waalwijk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Willem II will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Schuurman J. (Knock)

There will not play in Waalwijk: Kuijpers R. (Knee Injury) Uneken J. (Red Card) van de Loo T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Ciranni A. (Injury) Zarrouk A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Waalwijk: Al Mazyani F. (Injury) Zorgdrager B. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:12. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:3. (average 2.1:0.4).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Waalwijk: 7.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6:20	-14	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
05.05.26	Waalwijk - Willem II	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.04.26	Dordrecht - Willem II	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Willem II - Almere City	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Roda - Willem II	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWWW
- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eredivisie
05.05.26	Waalwijk - Willem II	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Waalwijk - Roda	2:1 penalties ✺
28.04.26	Roda - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.04.26	Waalwijk - Jong PSV	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	ADO Den Haag - Waalwijk	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
05.05.26	Waalwijk - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
08.02.26	Willem II - Waalwijk	2:1
17.10.25	Waalwijk - Willem II	2:3
Dutch Eredivisie
26.01.25	Waalwijk - Willem II	2:0
15.09.24	Willem II - Waalwijk	3:0
06.02.22	Willem II - Waalwijk	3:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
28.10.21	Waalwijk - Willem II	3:0

Upcoming Matches