Match Info

Championship - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play


	Wolverhampton Wanderers		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.55	4.50	5.50
	1.7	3.86	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.98	5.01
	1.62	4.08	5.26	Watch
	1.7	3.95	4.95
	1.7	3.96	5.21	Watch
	1.68	3.85	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.51)	4 ↓ (4.29)	5.03 ↓ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolverhampton Wanderers
57.3%

Draw
23.8%

Stoke City
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

22%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

21.2%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolverhampton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wolverhampton Wanderers's form might have worsened.

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolverhampton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wolverhampton Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolverhampton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Wolverhampton Wanderers will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sa J. (G) 38. Tchatchoua J. 34. Djiga N. 24. Toti (C) 3. Bueno H. 5. Munetsi M. 7. Andre 21. Gomes R. 28. Lopez F. 36. Mane M. 9. Jimenez R.	1. Johansson V. (C) 2. Johnson B. 18. Lawal B. 16. Wilmot B. 17. Bocat E. 27. Soumare D. 8. Galbraith E. 20. Gallagher S. 10. Bae Jun-Ho 7. Thomas S. 15. Hirst G.
Substitutes
10. Armstrong A. 4. Bueno S. 23. Chirewa T. 20. Doyle T. 8. James J. 17. Pedro Lima 12. Traore B. 13. Virginia J. (G) 6. Wolfe D.	43. Anderson F. 9. Bozenik R. 52. Giani L. 5. Graham L. 24. Griffiths J. (G) 42. Manhoef M. 58. Martin T. 4. Pearson B. 19. Rigo T.
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Gallagher S. ⚽,
15', Bae Jun-Ho 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Gomes R. ⚽,
23', 2 - 1, Gomes R. ⚽,
31', Lawal B. 🟨,
39', Mane M. 🟨,
45', Gallagher S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 3 - 1, Jimenez R. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Bae Jun-Ho ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
73', Jimenez R. ↓, Armstrong A. ↑,
73', Andre ↓, Traore B. ↑,
74', Hirst G. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,
77', Gomes R. ↓, James J. ↑,
77', Munetsi M. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
83', Mane M. ↓, Chirewa T. ↑,
84', 4 - 1, James J. ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
85', Gallagher S. ↓, Martin T. ↑,
85', Soumare D. ↓, Rigo T. ↑,
90+3', Thomas S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolverhampton won 1.

Wolverhampton has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Stoke has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stoke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Stoke has had a series of home games.

In this match, Wolverhampton is a strong favorite.

We predict that Wolverhampton will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Wolverhampton won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Wolverhampton won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Wolves: 16.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	15:11	4	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wolverhampton Wanderers
English League Cup
25.08.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Preston North End - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
14.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Blackburn Rovers	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
07.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Racing Santander	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWTWW
- Stoke City
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
22.08.26	Southampton - Stoke City	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Stoke City - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Stoke City - Oldham Athletic	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Stoke City - Valencia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.25	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1
31.07.21	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1
English League Cup
17.09.20	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:1
Club Friendly
25.07.18	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:0
English FA Cup
07.01.17	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:2
English Premier League
07.04.12	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1

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