Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Play Offs - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mario Camposeco (Quetzaltenango)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Tigo Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Xelajú		Municipal

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.2	3.6
	1.85	3.05	3.95
	1.85	2.93	4.21
	1.92	3.12	4.25	Watch
	1.85	3.2	3.75
	1.79	3.4	4.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.25)	3.15 ↑ (3.03)	3.96 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xelajú
48.6%

Draw
28.6%

Municipal
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.8%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

32.4%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xelajú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Xelajú's performance.

Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Municipal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Xelajú than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Municipal than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Xelajú - Municipal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Chang E. (G) 23. Calderon R. 11. Cardenas S. 16. Cardona J. 14. Gonzalez J. 70. Jaen Y. 10. Lopez A. 20. Quezada Gamez H. E. 4. Romero M. 25. Ruiz K. 13. Tebalan W.	1. Linares B. (G) 11. Bantes J. 31. Calderon C. 52. David A. 18. Franco J. 19. Hernandez C. 3. Mena J. (C) 92. Mendez J. 7. Munoz R. 43. Perez Y. Y. 4. Samayoa N.
Substitutes
26. Cardoza E. 18. Castaneda J. 6. de Leon M. 7. Diaz Y. 9. Escobar J. 22. Lobos N. (G) 77. Longo J. 24. Marquez R. 17. Ochaeta D.	10. Altan P. 20. Archila C. 26. Barrientos R. 33. Cabeza A. 32. Lopez E. 16. Morales J. 12. Navarro K. (G) 8. Saravia R. 14. Torres D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Ruiz K. 🟨,
10', Mendez J. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
14', 1 - 0, Romero M. ⚽,
29', Cardona J. 🟨,
29', Jaen Y. 🟨,
30', Perez Y. Y. 🟨,
44', Romero M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Romero M. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cardona J. ↓, Cardoza E. ↑,
46', Perez Y. Y. ↓, Morales J. ↑,
46', Munoz R. ↓, Saravia R. ↑,
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Diaz Y. ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Morales J. ⚽,
58', Bantes J. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
62', Ruiz K. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
69', Jaen Y. ↓, Ochaeta D. ↑,
73', Cardenas S. ↓, Marquez R. ↑,
73', Hernandez C. ↓, Altan P. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Xelajú won 1.

In recent matches, Xelajú has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Municipal is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Xelajú is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Xelajú won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:24. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Xelajú won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Municipal	10	7	2	1	16:5	11	23
5	Xelaju	12	5	3	4	24:14	10	18

Last Results with these Odds

Municipal - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 30.05%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Xelajú
Guatemala Liga Nacional
16.05.26	Municipal - Xelajú	4:1 ✺
10.05.26	Xelajú - Comunicaciones	2:0 ✺
07.05.26	Comunicaciones - Xelajú	2:2 ✺
03.05.26	Xelajú - Marquense	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Marquense - Xelajú	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWTWT
- CSD Municipal
Guatemala Liga Nacional
16.05.26	Municipal - Xelajú	4:1 ✺
09.05.26	Municipal - Deportivo Mixco	5:0 ✺
06.05.26	Deportivo Mixco - Municipal	0:2 ✺
03.05.26	Municipal - Deportivo Guastatoya	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Municipal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
16.05.26	Municipal - Xelajú	4:1
19.03.26	Xelajú - Municipal	3:1
28.01.26	Municipal - Xelajú	1:0
02.11.25	Xelajú - Municipal	1:1
23.08.25	Municipal - Xelajú	1:1
29.03.25	Municipal - Xelajú	1:0
26.01.25	Xelajú - Municipal	1:1

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