Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Alejandro Tabilo		Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.6	2.3	Watch
	1.58	2.33	Watch
	2.11	1.69	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.62	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.4)	2.25 ↓ (3)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
57.4%

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alejandro Tabilo's form might have worsened.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alejandro Tabilo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Alejandro Tabilo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Tabilo will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Barrios Vera will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tabilo: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 4 - 50%). Barrios Vera (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Tabilo (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Barrios Vera (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 68. Barrios Vera is ranked ATP: 107.

Tabilo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barrios Vera's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tabilo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tabilo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tabilo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Francesco Passaro	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWW
- Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Dino Prizmic	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Pedro Boscardin Dias	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Thiago Seyboth Wild	Seyboth Wild T. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Santiago
29.02.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	2:0
ATP Challenger
23.04.23	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.23	Alejandro Tabilo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	0:2

Alejandro Tabilo - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide