Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday


	Alejandro Tabilo		Valentin Royer

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.37	3.4
	1.31	3.47	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.35	3.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.54)	3.39 ↑ (2.51)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
71.7%

Valentin Royer
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alejandro Tabilo's performance.

Valentin Royer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valentin Royer might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Tabilo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Royer than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valentin Royer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Alejandro Tabilo - Valentin Royer Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Tabilo (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alejandro Tabilo will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 43. Royer is ranked ATP: 72.

Tabilo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Royer is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tabilo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tabilo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.93%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Valentin Royer - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 38.07%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Munich
14.04.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Marton Fucsovics - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Alex Michelsen	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWLW
- Valentin Royer
ATP Challenger
19.04.26	Valentin Royer - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Valentin Royer - Max Houkes	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Valentin Royer - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Valentin Royer - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Valentin Royer - Marco Cecchinato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWWW

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