Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	Arena 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis


	Alexander Zverev		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.4	1.57	Watch
	2.55	1.47	Watch
	2.54	1.58
	2.53	1.52	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.94	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.94)	1.51 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Zverev
37.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

73%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Zverev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Zverev's performance.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Zverev than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Zverev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Alcaraz Garfia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.5%	0%	52.5%

Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Zverev will win (votes: 19 - 50%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 19 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zverev: 34.1% – 65.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Zverev (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 8 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Zverev (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Zverev (1.52) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Zverev (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 8 - 29.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Zverev is ranked ATP: 3. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zverev won 3.

Recent performances by Zverev have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Zverev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alcaraz Garfia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Alcaraz Garfia will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Zverev won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Zverev
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.25	Ben Shelton - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
13.08.25	Karen Khachanov - Alexander Zverev	Khachanov K. retired ✺
13.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
06.08.25	Alexander Zverev - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 W?WWL
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Damir Dzumhur - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
13.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
15.11.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
09.06.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:3
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Australian Open
24.01.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1
ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	1:2
ATP US Open
06.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	3:0
ATP Madrid
02.05.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	2:0

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