Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Christian Garin		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.28	1.63	Watch
	2.24	1.76
	2.36	1.59	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.44	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.39)	1.65 ↑ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
41.9%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Christian Garin - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 104. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 23.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Garin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Davidovich Fokina might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Garin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Christian Garin - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Christian Garin - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Christian Garin - Moez Echargui	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Christian Garin - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
28.04.26	Moez Echargui - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLW
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.26	Learner Tien - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
14.03.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Christian Garin	2:0
ATP Antwerp
20.10.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Christian Garin	2:1
ATP Santiago
27.02.20	Christian Garin - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1

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