Match Info
ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finalsDate: 20 April 2026, Monday
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Christian Garin |
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Nicolas Jarry |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
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 Watch |
 |
1.37 |
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2.85 |
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 |
1.41 |
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3.02 |
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 |
1.26 |
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3.68 |
Watch |
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1.36 |
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3 |
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1.43 |
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2.82 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.37 ↓
(1.72) |
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3.07 ↑
(2.05) |
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- The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Christian Garin
69.2% | Nicolas Jarry
30.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christian Garin's performance.Nicolas Jarry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Jarry might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-14.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (+14.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Jarry could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Christian Garin - Nicolas Jarry Predictions
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Jarry will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 47.7% – 95.1%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Preview
Change of nomination. Garin is ranked ATP: 83. Jarry is ranked ATP: 155.Garin has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).Jarry is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Jarry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win. In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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