Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Final

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Movistar Plus+


	Daniil Medvedev		Jannik Sinner

	1	2
	4.33	1.22	Watch
	3.75	1.28
	4.3	1.26
	3.69	1.3	Watch
	4.2	1.22	Watch
	4.09	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↓ (4.26)	1.26 ↑ (1.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
23.7%

Jannik Sinner
76.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

77.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Jannik Sinner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	0%	19%

Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 17 - 81%). Sinner will win (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 64.2% – 97.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Medvedev (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - Sinner (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Medvedev (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Sinner (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 11. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 1.

Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

In this match, Sinner is a strong favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Jack Draper - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
11.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWWW
- Jannik Sinner
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.26	Alexander Zverev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Learner Tien - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Joao Fonseca - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Denis Shapovalov - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
06.03.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP World Tour Finals
14.11.24	Jannik Sinner - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
16.10.24	Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP Shanghai
10.10.24	Jannik Sinner - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP US Open
04.09.24	Jannik Sinner - Daniil Medvedev	3:1
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.24	Jannik Sinner - Daniil Medvedev	2:3
ATP Miami
29.03.24	Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP Australian Open
28.01.24	Jannik Sinner - Daniil Medvedev	3:2

Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide