Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villena, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday


	Felix Balshaw		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.80	1.90
	1.83	1.88	Watch
	1.82	1.89	Watch
	1.83	1.88
	1.8	1.88	Watch
	1.83	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.56)	1.89 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felix Balshaw
51%

Joel Schwaerzler
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felix Balshaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Felix Balshaw's form might have worsened.

Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joel Schwaerzler's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felix Balshaw than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Felix Balshaw, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joel Schwaerzler, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Felix Balshaw - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Balshaw will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Balshaw is ranked ATP: 198., and Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 185..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Balshaw could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Balshaw holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felix Balshaw
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Henry Bernet - Felix Balshaw	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Felix Balshaw - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Billy Harris - Felix Balshaw	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Felix Balshaw	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Inaki Montes De La Torre - Felix Balshaw	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
03.10.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Lucas Poullain - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Harry Wendelken	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Alberto Barroso Campos - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Maxime Chazal - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWL

Felix Balshaw - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide